Following months of anticipation, the Union Cabinet has approved the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the period 2031-2035, committing to enhanced climate ambition under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Building on previous NDC targets, the latest NDC goals commit the following:
● Reduce emissions intensity: Target 47 per cent reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2035 compared to 2005 levels
● Expand non-fossil power capacity: Achieve 60 per cent of cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035
● Enhance carbon sink: Create 3.5-4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent carbon sink through forest and tree cover by 2035 from 2005 level
The new NDC (2031-2035) enhances the climate pledges set in India’s first NDC (2015), which were further revised and updated in 2021-2022.
Comparison across successive NDC committments
| Commitment Area | First NDC (2015) | Updated NDC (2021–2022) |
Progress (BUR4, 2025) |
Updated NDC (2031-2035) |
| Emissions intensity | Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35 per cent below 2005 levels |
Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 |
Emissions intensity of India’s GDP reduced by 36 per cent from 2005 levels (as of 2020) |
Target 47 per cent reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2035 compared to 2005 levels |
| Non-fossil power capacity | Achieve 40 per cent of installed electric power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030 |
Achieve 50 per cent of cumulative installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030 |
Non-fossil sources accounted for 49.75 per cent of installed capacity (July 2025); however, coal still contributes about 75 per cent of generation |
Achieve 60 per cent of cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035 |
| Carbon sink (forests) | Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO₂e by 2030 through increased forest and tree cover |
Additional carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO₂e achieved between 2005 and 2021 |
Create 3.5-4 billion tonnes CO2e carbon sink through increased forest and tree cover |
|
| Long-term target | Net-zero emissions by 2070 |
Source: Authors’ compilation
Aside from the three headline targets, five qualitative targets have also been identified, including climate-friendly and cleaner economic development pathways, resilient infrastructure to adapt to climate change in various sectors, mobilising domestic and international low-cost finance, capacity building and R&D, and alignment with the principle of “Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE)”.
As on December 31, 2025, India’s non-fossil installed capacity stood at 266.78 GW, or 51.93 per cent of the total, with fossil fuel sources comprising 246.94 GW, or 48.07 per cent. With India’s power capacity set to double to 1,121 GW by 2035-36 according to the CEA’s 20th Electric Power Survey Midterm Review (released on March 19, 2026), a 60 per cent non-fossil installed capacity target equals about 672.6 GW.
Non-Fossil Installed Capacity: Trends 2020-2026
| Year | Total Installed Capacity (GW) |
Non-Fossil Installed Capacity (GW) |
Year on Year Increase of Non-Fossil (GW) |
Year on Year Increase of Non-Fossil (Percentage) |
| 2021 | 392 | 157 | – | – |
| 2022 | 399 | 173 | 0.10 | 10.19 |
| 2023 | 428 | 186 | 0.08 | 7.51 |
| 2024 | 453 | 211 | 0.13 | 13.44 |
| 2025 | 514 | 267 | 0.27 | 26.54 |
Table: Non-Fossil Capacity Additions and Growth Rates
Source: Authors’ compilation based on GoI data.
Even assuming current trends, the renewable capacity addition trajectory is likely to exceed the target. Median year-on-year percentage increase for capacity addition of non-fossil sources between 2021 and 2025 stood at about 12 per cent, while the same for total installed capacity was about 7 per cent. Assuming these median rates of change for non-fossil and total power capacity for 2026 to 2035, India’s non-fossil capacity target of 60 per cent of total (as against the present 52.57 per cent) is likely to be achieved by 2028.
However, despite rising capacity, the actual power generated from non-fossil sources remains low. The CEA’s Annual Report notes that India’s renewable energy generation (including hydropower) in 2024-2025 was only 22.36 per cent of the total.
On the other major targets, India’s fourth Biennial Update report, released in January 2025, states that India’s emissions intensity as a share of GDP reduced by 36 per cent from 2005 levels as of 2020, while an additional carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of CO2e had been created between 2005 and 2021 due to afforestation and ecosystem restoration efforts.
India’s new NDC follows the pragmatic approach of many large emerging economies. China released its updated NDC in September 2025. Its new emissions goal shifted from a target to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 to an absolute emissions reduction target of 7-10 per cent from peak levels, which analysts have stated is underwhelming for the country that is driving the global green energy transition. India, which has a far lower emissions contribution of 3.5 per cent of global historical emissions, has stuck to an emissions intensity as a share of GDP target, highlighting how balancing developmental priorities with climate goals continues to be a top concern for policymakers.
Avantika Goswami, Programme Manager for the Climate Change Programme at Centre for Science and Environment, a New Delhi-based think tank, commented on India’s latest NDC, “India’s new targets represent a commitment to climate multilateralism; to halve its emissions intensity of GDP and have more than half of installed power capacity from non-fossil sources in nine years shows that India is pulling more than its weight given its minimal historical contribution to emissions. At a time when developed countries are backtracking on ambition, deepening their fossil fuel entrenchment, and dragging the world towards military conflict, the signal from India shows that Global South leadership on climate ambition is concrete and real.”