Australia's fossil fuel exports generated an estimated 12.4 billion tonnes of CO2e emissions between January 2016 and March 2026, according to Global Witness.
These emissions exceeded the combined domestic emissions of the world's 44 least developed countries over the same period.
Coal accounted for 78% of Australia's exported fossil fuel emissions, contributing 9.7 billion tonnes of CO2e.
Australia has cut domestic emissions by 29% from 2005 levels but continues to approve coal and gas projects.
The findings raise questions about Australia's climate commitments ahead of COP31, where it will lead negotiations.
Australia's fossil fuel exports generated an estimated 12.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions between January 2016 and March 2026, exceeding the combined domestic emissions of the world's 44 least developed countries over the same period, according to a new analysis.
The findings, published by environmental campaign group Global Witness, highlight the contrast between Australia's efforts to reduce emissions within its borders and its continued role as a major exporter of coal, oil and gas.
Based on Australian government export records, the analysis found that emissions associated with the country's fossil fuel exports were equivalent to around a third of the European Union's domestic emissions over the same period.
A further 6.9 billion tonnes of emissions could be generated from Australian fossil fuel exports by 2031, according to government projections cited in the analysis.
This would bring the estimated total to 19.3 billion tonnes between 2016 and 2032, equivalent to around 3.4 per cent of the remaining global carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C, using a 2016 baseline.
The figures refer to emissions released when Australian fossil fuels are burned overseas, rather than emissions generated within Australia.
While Australia has reduced its domestic emissions by 29 per cent compared with 2005 levels, emissions associated with its fossil fuel exports have remained high. In 2025, annual emissions from exported fossil fuels were approximately 2.5 times the country's domestic emissions.
Coal accounted for approximately 78 per cent of emissions associated with Australia's fossil fuel exports, generating an estimated 9.7 billion tonnes of CO2e over the period analysed.
Global Witness said this exceeded the combined annual energy-related emissions of the United States, India and Japan in 2024.
According to Geoscience Australia's 2026 assessment, based on 2024 data, Australia was the world's fourth-largest coal producer and second-largest exporter, behind Indonesia. It accounted for 6.5 per cent of global coal production and 25 per cent of exports.
In the 2023-24 financial year, Australia exported 10,057 petajoules of coal, earning A$91.4 billion from black coal exports.
Government energy statistics showed that 88.9 per cent of Australia's black coal energy production was exported in 2024-25, largely to Asian markets. Brown coal, meanwhile, was used primarily for domestic electricity generation.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports also increased by 73 per cent between 2016 and 2025, with the sharpest growth occurring between 2016 and 2020 as major gas projects became operational.
Australia's 2024 national gas strategy envisages developing new gas supplies and expanding existing projects until 2050 and beyond. The International Energy Agency ranks Australia as the world's seventh-largest natural gas producer.
Despite its climate commitments, Australia has continued approving the extension of major fossil fuel projects.
In May 2025, the government granted a 40-year extension to Woodside's North West Shelf gas project. Climate Action Tracker, an independent research initiative, said the decision was incompatible with the Paris Agreement's goals and Australia's emissions reduction commitments.
In September 2026, the government also approved an extension until 2045 for coal mining operations in the Hunter Valley in eastern Australia, potentially allowing the extraction of an additional 430 million tonnes of coal.
The Australian environmental organisation Climate Council described the extension as "a climate bomb that would supercharge climate disasters".
The government has defended continued fossil fuel production and exports, arguing that Australia must meet international demand and remain a reliable energy supplier as countries transition towards net zero emissions.
In its response to a parliamentary inquiry, it rejected a recommendation to stop approving new coal and gas projects, noting that Australia exported more than two-thirds of the energy it produced.
The government has maintained that demand for fossil fuels will decline as countries transition to net zero, rather than setting a specific date for phasing out coal exports.
The findings come ahead of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled to take place in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20, 2026.
Türkiye will host the summit, while Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen will serve as president of negotiations, giving Australia a prominent role in international climate discussions.
Australia has pledged to reduce domestic emissions by 62-70 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
However, its national emissions targets do not directly include greenhouse gases released when Australian fossil fuels are burned overseas.
This distinction has become increasingly contentious, as fossil fuel-exporting countries can reduce emissions within their borders while continuing to supply coal, oil and gas to international markets.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, criticised the gap between Australia's domestic climate commitments and its continued fossil fuel expansion.
“I think it's quite hypocritical of Australia, claiming that it is a global leader on climate action,” he told Global Witness.
He argued that governments needed to address emissions associated with fossil fuel exports rather than focusing solely on their domestic obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Continuing to expand the development of fossil fuels, coal, gas, in Australia's case, is essentially using the drug dealer's defence — that if we don't do it, someone else will,” Hare said.
Global Witness also cited criticism from campaigners who questioned Australia's climate leadership ahead of COP31. The group pointed to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's address to the United Nations General Assembly, which discussed climate risks without mentioning fossil fuels.