Cyclone Arnab, after making landfall in Andhra Pradesh, is likely to move northward.
This could bring heavy rain and strong winds in coastal West Bengal districts.
IMD predicts weakening of the cyclone over the next 48 hours.
West Bengal coasts that fall within the outer fringe of Arnab are likely to receive heavy rainfall and strong winds. After the cyclone made a landfall in Andhra Pradesh on October 28, it is likely to move north. “However, we do not expect any major skirmishes,” H R Biswas head of Alipore regional centre of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kolkata, tells Down To Earth (DTE) on October 28.
IMD’s 9.30 am bulletin had earlier confirmed that “… the landfall process has been completed with the central region moving completely into land”. Later, its 10.50 am update said, “The cyclone ARNAB crossed the Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts to the Southwest of Yanam, about 20 Km East-northeast of Narsapur, 40 Km Southwest of Yanam and 60 Km Southwest of Kakinada during 02:00 and 08:00 hours IST today as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph”.
The earlier bulletins pointed out that the central part of the cyclone system remained stagnated close to the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts for hours, and the landfall got delayed, even after the cyclone’s peripheral portion touched the coast in early hours of October 28. “The system remained practically stationary during last 01 hour. The rear portion of the wall cloud region is entering the coastal area. The landfall process is likely to complete during next 01 hour,” reads the IMD hourly bulletin no 13, released at 8.30 am. Hourly bulletin number 12, issued an hour earlier, also pointed out the likability of the landfall to be completed “during next 01 hour”, underlying the delay.
IMD’s latest bulletin predicts that the system is “ …likely to move north-northwestwards during next 48 hours and weaken gradually. It will weaken into a cyclonic storm during next 06 hours and further into a Deep Depression during subsequent 06 hours”.
“Bengal coast is about 800 km away from the landfall point and remains in the outer fringe of cyclone Arnab’s track. There would have been no impact if the cyclone’s movement goes straight but as it is likely to traverse north wise, our coastal and adjoining districts of South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapur are slated to receive heavy rains and string wind in the range of 40 to 50 kmph” says Biswas.
Forner IMD director K J Ramesh tells DTE that the north bound projected movement has already brought rains till Chhattisgarh and Odisha till Bhubeneshwar, and West Bengal coasts are also likely to receive rains as Arnab travels more towards north.
A senior official in the disaster department of West Bengal tells DTE that the state is ready for cyclone Arnab, expressing relief that the actual impact of disaster in West Bengal now seems to be less than originally anticipated.
This is corroborated by the situation on the ground. “Till now (around 10 am on October 28), there is no impact. The weather is cloudy and there was some thundershower and lightening last night but no rain yet in the morning,” an official from the Block Development Office in Sagar island of South 24 Parganas district tells DTE. Sagar is one of the closest points in Bengal in the cyclone track. “We have deputed our civil defence volunteers near the vulnerable points like Sagar, Dhablat and Chemaguri mainly to make people aware and to monitor the situation because we are concerned about the possible impacts on the embankments,” says the official.