As the global population heads towards nearly 10 billion by 2050, current agricultural water management (AWM) systems can sustainably support food production for only about 3.4 billion people—less than half of today’s population of 8 billion. At the heart of the crisis lies not just water scarcity, but poor management according to a new report.
Water is used inefficiently, unevenly and often unsustainably, according to the report published by World Bank ahead of World Water Day 2026. For instance, while parts of Sub-Saharan Africa underuse available resources, regions such as South Asia are overexploiting them.
Both extremes are risky—undermining food production, degrading ecosystems and heightening vulnerability to climate shocks. Droughts and floods are already taking a heavy toll, destroying crops, disrupting livelihoods and increasing emergency spending.
As these shocks intensify, the need to both curb overuse in water-stressed regions and unlock underutilised potential in water-abundant areas becomes urgent. Meeting future food demand will require a fundamental shift in how agricultural water systems are designed and managed, the report noted.
Agriculture is no longer operating in a temporary water crisis but within a state of global water bankruptcy, the United Nations recently warned in its report on Global Water Bankruptcy.
The challenge we face is not simply to use more or less water but to use water more effectively, at the right time, at the right place, and for the right purpose.
“Past investments delivered real gains; however, conditions have changed rapidly, and today’s realities call for reliable water services that can adapt to change, perform over time, and are supported by capable institutions, clear rules, and better information,” said Guangzhe Chen, Vice President for Planet at the World Bank Group.
The right choices depend on how much water a country has, and the role trade plays in meeting its food needs, the report stated.
It also suggested a “new water-food nexus framework”.
The framework categorises countries based on two factors: their level of water stress (availability versus scarcity and their food trade position (whether they are net importers or exporters of calories).
The categories are:
Water-secure food importer
Water-secure food exporter
Water-stressed food exporter
Water-stressed food importer.
This approach moves away from one-size-fits-all solutions and instead offers tailored pathways suited to local realities.
The framework, according to the report, will help policymakers identify where rainfed agriculture can be strengthened, where irrigation expansion can generate jobs and boost production, where water use must be rebalanced to protect ecosystems, and where trade can offer a more sustainable route to food security.
Drawing on geospatial data and household surveys across 58 countries, the report is the first global analysis of how irrigation, within the larger context of AWM, can benefit economic, environmental, and human development across different regions. It shows that better water management can increase productivity, reduce the crop water footprint and free up water for ecosystems—without compromising overall food production.
The report highlighted that the economic and social benefits could be significant. A 10 per cent rise in agricultural productivity can lower poverty by 2.5-3 per cent. It added that sustainably expanding irrigation in suitable rainfed areas could generate around 245 million jobs worldwide, including nearly 218 million in Sub-Saharan Africa—about four jobs per newly irrigated hectare.
India, identified as a “water-stressed food exporter” in the new framework on agricultural water management systems, faces a distinct set of challenges. To remain sustainable, the country will need to shift towards less water-intensive crops while maintaining farm incomes and invest in more efficient and modern irrigation systems. This aligns with a recent assessment by the India’s Central Ground Water Board that revealed a concerning decline in annual groundwater recharge in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and western Uttar Pradesh, where excessive extraction due widespread cultivation of water-intensive paddy intensified water stress.
However, financing remains a major hurdle in the new framework. Feeding the global population by 2050 will require between $600 billion and $1.8 trillion. Yet, of the $663 billion spent on agriculture in 2023—including $490 billion in public funds—only $27 billion went towards irrigation. The World Bank report stated this, citing estimates from the Global Alliance for Food Security. Much of the current spending is tied to subsidies that often encourage inefficient production and resource use.
Redirecting even a fraction of these funds towards improved water management could significantly enhance food security while reducing long-term costs. At the same time, greater private sector participation will be critical to drive innovation, investment and efficiency in water systems.
The report includes cases of transformation from countries such as Mali, Senegal, Uganda, France, Peru, India and Morocco. These cases demonstrate that with the right policies, institutions and investments, agricultural water management systems can be reshaped to support both people and the planet.
A scientific study warned that rising heat and water stress could reduce global food production by 6-14 per cent by 2050, potentially pushing up to 1.36 billion more people into severe food insecurity compared to 2020.
With food demand projected to grow by as much as 56 per cent between 2010 and 2050, incremental improvements in water use will be insufficient to bridge the gap, said the World Bank report. The report called on policymakers to adopt a water-food nexus approach, emphasising smarter and more integrated water management to ensure long-term food security.