Subscribe
The initial two weeks of US and Israel's assault in Iran produced over 5 million tonnes of CO2e.
This surpassed Iceland's annual emissions.
The emissions were primarily from destroyed infrastructure and fuel.
The United States and Israel's assault in Iran, which claimed innocent lives, destroyed critical infrastructure in the region and led to a global energy crisis, is set to have a significant impact on the environment. The conflict generated more greenhouse gas emissions than Iceland produces in an entire year, according to a new analysis.
Researchers from the Climate and Community Institute (CCI) estimated that the initial 14 days of bombardment produced over 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), exceeding Iceland's annual emissions of around 4.28 million tonnes. The figures are also comparable to putting 1.1 million petrol cars on the road for a year and amount to more than $1.3 billion in climate damage.
The study attributed the bulk of emissions to the destruction of civilian infrastructure and fuel. Destroyed homes and buildings accounted for roughly 2.4 million tonnes of CO2e, followed by burning or destroyed fuel at about 1.88 million tonnes. Fuel consumed in combat operations contributed around 529,000 tonnes, while emissions embedded in military equipment, missiles and drones made up the remainder.
The authors warned that these figures capture only the earliest phase of the conflict. Emissions are expected to rise sharply as military operations continue, driven particularly by uncontrolled fires at oil infrastructure, the replenishment of weapons stocks and the deployment of additional naval forces. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to refineries and tankers could further intensify both the economic and environmental toll.
“Every refinery fire and tanker strike is a reminder that fossil‑fuelled geopolitics is incompatible with a livable planet," said Patrick Bigger, study co-author and CCI research director told The Guardian. "This war shows, yet again, that the fastest way to supercharge the climate crisis is to let fossil fuel interests dictate foreign policy."
Long-term emissions may far exceed those generated during active fighting. Reconstruction of damaged homes, roads, energy systems and public infrastructure typically produces significantly higher carbon output than combat itself. Previous conflicts, including those in Gaza and Ukraine, have shown that rebuilding phases can generate emissions comparable to, or far greater than, wartime activity.
The climate cost of armed conflict has been documented in earlier wars as well. In 2025, the researchers analysed the Gaza conflict and found that in 15 months, emissions from direct military activities alone exceeded the annual greenhouse gas output of 36 countries and territories. Researchers estimated around 1.9 million tonnes of CO2e from active combat, encompassing aerial bombardment, artillery use, vehicle movement and military logistics.
When emissions from pre-war fortifications and anticipated reconstruction were included, the total footprint rose to over 32.2 million tonnes of CO₂e and surpassed the yearly emissions of more than 100 countries.
Researchers divided the carbon footprint into three phases: pre-conflict construction, active warfare and post-war rebuilding. Pre-war infrastructure such as tunnel networks and security barriers alone generated more than 557,000 tonnes of CO2e, largely owing to the heavy use of steel and concrete.
Direct conflict emissions were driven by cargo deliveries by air and sea, aerial sorties, artillery fire and ground vehicle operations. Analysts also noted that conventional climate accounting frameworks fail to capture such "conflict emissions", particularly those linked to the destruction of infrastructure and humanitarian logistics. The Gaza study called for the mandatory reporting of military emissions under global climate frameworks, arguing that wars create large but largely uncounted contributions to global warming.
The findings from both conflicts underscore growing concern among researchers that the climate consequences of armed conflict remain almost entirely absent from mainstream emissions debates.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, from onset in February 2022 until February 2025, a total of 230 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent were released, with 55 million tonnes in 2024 alone, according to the expert group 'Initiative on GHG Accounting of War'. This is comparable to the combined annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, or those from 120 million fossil-fuel vehicles.