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A new Africa Finance Corporation report says global trade tensions are increasing the strategic value of Africa’s mineral reserves
Africa holds an estimated US$29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral wealth but captures only a small share of downstream value
The report urges countries to move from raw exports to selective processing in strategic supply chain chokepoints
Infrastructure, regional integration and better geological data are identified as critical to unlocking value
Gold is highlighted as an opportunity to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and improve macroeconomic stability
As global trade becomes increasingly divided by geopolitical tensions, Africa’s vast mineral reserves are gaining renewed strategic importance, according to a new report by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
Changing trade rules, export restrictions and intensifying industrial competition are reshaping global supply chains, the report says. Against this backdrop, Africa has an opportunity to reposition itself — but only if countries carefully decide where and how to participate in sensitive global value chains.
The report, Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals, 2026, identifies “trade and geo-economic realignment” as one of its five key findings, arguing that it is elevating the strategic relevance of African minerals at a time when supply chains for rare earths, battery materials and other critical inputs are under visible strain.
Major economies, concerned about concentration risks and national security, are seeking alternative suppliers. Africa, with one of the world’s most diversified mineral endowments, is central to that search.
Africa’s mineral resources are estimated at $29.5 trillion at mine-site value — roughly 20 per cent of the global total. Of this, $8.6 trillion remains undeveloped, equivalent to about 2.5 times the continent’s annual GDP. Yet the continent captures only a small fraction of the value embedded in its resources.
“The binding constraint is not geology, but conversion,” the report states. The core challenges lie in translating mineral wealth into productive assets, infrastructure, industrial capacity, regional value chains and competitive manufacturing platforms.
China currently controls around 90 per cent of global manganese refining and rare earth processing, and dominates battery-grade graphite production. Similar concentration is seen in aerospace and defence supply chains, where minerals such as chromium, graphite, rare earths and tungsten are heavily concentrated. Uranium has also regained strategic relevance as nuclear power returns to energy security discussions.
In this context, Africa’s non-aligned positioning and mineral diversity represent what the report calls “genuine strategic advantages”. However, it cautions against indiscriminate insertion into global value chains.
“The objective is not to insert Africa everywhere,” the analysis notes, “but to position it where supply chains are most concentrated and where diversification would materially enhance resilience.”
For example, while African manganese smelters compete in a diversified global market, South Africa’s sole manganese refinery — one of only three outside China — holds strategic value because it offers a credible non-China alternative at a critical chokepoint.
The report argues that Africa continues to export raw minerals at low prices while importing higher-value finished products made from those same resources — effectively paying twice for its own wealth.
Countries bear the logistics costs of exporting ores and then absorb additional shipping, insurance and value-added margins when importing processed goods, capturing only a small share of the value chain.
Three conditions — the mineral resource itself, reliable infrastructure (particularly power and transport), and strong market demand — rarely co-locate within African economies. As a result, even commercially viable processing projects often stall due to unreliable electricity, weak transport links and fragmented domestic markets.
Yet the potential gains from processing are substantial. Africa’s $2.8 trillion in iron ore at mine gate could translate into $25.4 trillion in steel. Similarly, $874 billion in bauxite expands to $5.2 trillion as alumina and up to $15.4 trillion when smelted into aluminium.
The report points to early signs of repositioning. Angola is planning Africa’s first rare earth refinery. Mozambique has entered the largest natural graphite and anode supply chain outside China. Battery-grade manganese sulphate projects are advancing in South Africa and Botswana. Uranium production has restarted in Namibia (2024) and Malawi (2025).
These developments suggest a gradual shift from pure extraction towards selective integration into strategic supply chain segments.
However, isolated projects will not be enough, the report warns. Africa’s mineral strategy must evolve into infrastructure-backed, regionally integrated and policy-aligned platforms.
Geological data systems remain fragmented and outdated in many countries, limiting exploration and investment. The report urges African governments to treat geological data as strategic infrastructure and to build modern, connected systems.
“Africa’s mineral story has too often been framed narrowly – through fragmented data, an upstream-only lens, and priorities set largely outside the continent,” said Samaila Zubairu, President and Chief Executive Officer of AFC. “This report is a deliberate effort to reframe Africa’s minerals sector through an African lens by focusing on infrastructure, beneficiation and domestic demand.”
Africa’s development priorities extend beyond a narrow list of energy-transition minerals. Rapid urbanisation and rising demand for power, construction materials, fertilisers, clean energy technologies and vehicles will drive substantial future mineral demand. Yet national markets are often too small to sustain large-scale processing industries on their own.
Only through regional aggregation of demand, the report argues, can Africa build competitive mineral processing industries.
It cites examples such as Morocco’s phosphate sector, North Africa’s steel industry and the Copperbelt’s copper industry, where infrastructure, scale and stable demand supported success.
Infrastructure sits at the centre of the report’s mineral strategy. Reliable power, efficient transport, industrial land and effective trade systems are presented as prerequisites for building local mineral industries.
The report maps mines alongside railways, ports and power hubs to identify where cross-border value chains could realistically expand.
Gold is also highlighted as a strategic opportunity. Although Africa holds over $5 trillion in gold resources, the metal represents only a modest share of external reserves across the continent.
The report suggests that Ghana and at least 14 other African countries with formal gold refineries could use gold more actively to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and stabilise their economies.
Ghana’s creation of GoldBod in 2025 is cited as an example of institutional reform aimed at increasing reserve accumulation, formalising artisanal mining, reducing smuggling and stabilising the macroeconomy. The country has rebuilt reserves above $10 billion and achieved significant currency appreciation.