Nepal's glacial floods could be a warning for other vulnerable regions as the world's frozen landscapes warm faster than the global average.
The Arctic has warmed up to four times faster than the global average, while the Hindu Kush Himalayas are also experiencing accelerated warming.
Scientists warn that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold could trigger irreversible ice loss and release vast amounts of carbon stored in permafrost.
India recorded 6,119 deaths from glacial lake outburst floods between 1835 and 2025, the highest toll among eight Hindu Kush Himalayan countries studied.
Two reports released ahead of COP31 call for urgent emissions cuts and greater investment in climate adaptation.
The devastating glacial floods witnessed in Nepal could be a warning of what lies ahead for other glacier-dependent regions of the world. The world's frozen regions are warming faster than the global average, raising the risk of catastrophic floods, irreversible ice loss and the release of vast amounts of trapped carbon, according to two new reports released ahead of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The findings raise concerns for glacier-filled and the permafrost regions of the world, where communities living downstream face growing risks from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF).
Two reports, Overshoot and the Cryosphere: Averting Global Meltdown and State of the Cryosphere 2026: The Cost of Overshoot, were released on November 2, 2026, about a week before COP31 begins in Antalya, Turkey. The reports were brought out by policy experts network International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
The Overshoot report warned that glaciers, ice sheets and permafrost regions were particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, with changes in these frozen landscapes potentially having consequences far beyond the polar and mountain regions.
About 15 per cent of the Northern Hemisphere, covering approximately 14 million square kilometres, is underlain by terrestrial permafrost, which stores at least 1,700 billion tonnes of carbon in frozen and thawing ground.
“Taken together, terrestrial and submarine permafrost on the continental shelves offshore of Siberia and North America are estimated to hold several times the amount of carbon currently stored in the atmosphere,” said a media summary shared by ICCI.
The Overshoot report warned that even temporarily exceeding the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) warming threshold, compared to the pre-industrial benchmark, could have lasting consequences for the world's frozen regions.
“Overshooting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target will bring large-scale, and in many cases irreversible, impacts from the Earth's melting ice sheets, permafrost, glaciers, sea ice and polar oceans,” said the media summary.
A recent analysis by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also warned that global temperatures could remain above the 1.5°C threshold for much of the century.
According to the report, the Arctic warmed up to four times faster than the global average over the past decade.
Mountain regions are also experiencing above-average warming. In the Hindu Kush Himalaya, a global temperature rise of 1.5°C could translate into regional warming of between 1.8°C and 2.2°C.
The report also found that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were losing ice at about six times the rate recorded in the 1990s.
A separate UN-led study, currently in the pre-publication stage, found that India recorded the highest number of deaths from glacial lake outburst floods among eight countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region between 1835 and 2025.
The study, Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risks, Response Strategies and Adaptation Gaps in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region, examined floods across a region spanning 4.2 million sq km and covering Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Although India ranked third in the number of recorded GLOF events, it had the highest reported death toll. According to the study, China recorded 199 glacial lake outburst floods, followed by Pakistan with 152, India with 62 and Nepal with 58.
However, India recorded 6,119 deaths, compared with 1,991 in Pakistan and 625 in China.
The study also found that India had experienced the most severe displacement associated with such floods, followed by Nepal and Pakistan.
Dipesh Chapagain, a glacial scientist at the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) in Bonn and lead author of the study, said GLOF events had increased rapidly in recent decades, mainly because of climate change.
The study found a marked rise in the frequency of such floods after 1950, rising to approximately 34 events per decade — a fivefold increase compared to the pre-1950 period.
The researchers identified ice avalanches as the primary trigger in 50 per cent of recorded events, while intense rainfall accounted for 25 per cent.
About 70 per cent of the floods occurred during the summer monsoon months, when both temperatures and precipitation were at their highest.
The findings suggested a strong link between climatic conditions and the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods.
James Kirkham, chief scientist at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) and coordinating lead author of the Overshoot report, produced with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), described the findings as alarming.
“The Overshoot report does paint a very gloomy and scary picture,” he said.
Kirkham called for greater investment in adaptation measures, alongside urgent efforts to limit the extent and duration of warming above 1.5°C.
“We need to increase finance and efforts towards adaptation,” he said, adding that countries must act to keep peak warming as close to 1.5°C as possible and for as short a period as possible.
“The loss of ice will have impacts globally that do reverberate around the whole planet. It's all connected,” he added.
These losses can still be limited if overshoot is kept to a minimum by deep emissions reductions followed by scaled-up carbon drawdown. Global ice is unforgiving in its response to even temporary overshoot. Faster transition from fossil fuels means the difference between manageable losses — and a planet overwhelmed by serial disasters like that in Nepal in AugustInternational Cryosphere Climate Initiative press release
An Indian climate expert who did not wish to be named, speaking on November 2, called the findings an “eye-opener” and urged the country to strengthen its preparedness for glacier-related disasters.
The expert said India needed to accelerate adaptation efforts in its Himalayan regions to reduce the risks to communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.