El Niño is strengthening rapidly, with the World Meteorological Organization’s latest assessment indicating a near-100 per cent likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027. It could become one of the strongest events since at least 1950. Exceptionally warm tropical Pacific waters, where the El Niño begins, are already influencing global climate patterns, raising concerns about extreme temperatures, disrupted rainfall and mounting risks to food and water security.
But a climate emergency does not always arrive in the dramatic form of a cyclone or flood. In India, the gravest consequences of an exceptionally strong El Niño will be felt in a village well running dry, a farmer’s wheat crop exposed to heat, a rainfed paddy field deprived of moisture, a livestock keeper’s shrinking grazing land and an agricultural labourer’s inability to work safely.
Is India prepared to avert the crisis and offer protection to its rural communities?
India has made substantial progress in rural drinking water infrastructure. When the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) began in August 2019, about 17 per cent of rural households had tap water connections. By December 2025, reported coverage had exceeded 81 per cent, according to the Union Ministry of Jal Shakti. But a tap does not guarantee water security.
The government’s 2024 functionality assessment, which covered more than 237,000 households in sampled Har Ghar Jal villages, found that 86.5 per cent had functioning tap connections, 80.2 per cent received adequate quantities of water, 83.6 per cent received supplies according to schedule and 76 per cent received water meeting prescribed quality standards. The figures highlight an important distinction between installing infrastructure and delivering reliable, safe water.
Groundwater, meanwhile, remains the largely invisible foundation of rural India’s water economy. Yet 730 of India’s 6,762 assessed groundwater units are classified as over-exploited, with others falling into critical or semi-critical categories.
Extreme heat increases evaporative demand, while deficient rainfall can reduce soil moisture and groundwater recharge. Where aquifers are already under pressure from excessive extraction, these stresses can compound one another, even though impacts will vary with local geology, rainfall and water management.
So, there is an urgent need to move from Har Ghar Jal to “har ghar jal suraksha”—from counting connections to securing water sources, protecting aquifers, monitoring water quality and building village water systems that remain reliable through difficult summers.
Traditional ponds, tanks, johads, eris and other locally appropriate waterbodies must be restored as functioning parts of the landscape, not merely beautified or desilted for photographs. Rural employment spending on water conservation should be evaluated for measurable hydrological and ecological benefits, not simply expenditure and completed works. A concrete tank cannot compensate for a dead aquifer. Nor can a tap.
One of the most troubling climate risks is the growing threat from compound drought-heatwave events (CDHWs), in which unusually dry conditions coincide with extreme heat. These are not simply two hazards occurring simultaneously. They can reinforce each other.
As soils dry, less energy is used to evaporate moisture, leaving more available to heat the land and the air above it. Higher temperatures, in turn, increase atmospheric demand for moisture. This feedback can intensify both heat and drought.
A study published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences in February 2026, examined compound drought-heatwave patterns across India between 1951 and 2016. It found that the share of the country affected by these events expanded from 10 per cent to 35 per cent, with risk extending beyond the traditionally dry northwest into historically more humid parts of the east and south.
That is a disturbing development for states such as Odisha, West Bengal and Assam, where water availability and monsoon-dependent agriculture are central to rural livelihoods.
The study also found that high-intensity compound-event years were associated with a 12.1 per cent reduction in national rice yields. A separate study published in Nature Communications on October 14, 2026 adds another dimension. Analysing more than 2,500 compound drought-heatwave events worldwide, researchers found that some events moved systematically across geographical areas. Many lasted six to 12 days and travelled distances of up to 500 kilometres.
Compound extremes, in other words, need not remain confined to where they begin. Their geographical footprints can shift, exposing additional landscapes and communities.
This challenges the assumption that drought and heatwave preparedness can be organized district by district, without accounting for wider regional connections. In the current El Niño episode, climate-risk planning must catch up with the science.
Wheat is particularly vulnerable to high temperatures during its reproductive and grain-filling stages. Research cited by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and reported by the Union government, indicates that wheat grain yields can fall by 3-4 per cent for every 1°C increase in temperature during grain filling. The actual impact depends on crop variety, the timing and duration of heat exposure, soil moisture and local growing conditions.
A hotter-than-normal late winter or early spring could therefore threaten wheat productivity, particularly where delayed sowing and inadequate irrigation coincide.
Eastern India’s rice-growing regions face a different but equally serious challenge. Erratic rainfall, dry spells, high temperatures and warmer nights can affect crop growth, grain filling and yields. Rainfed farmers are especially vulnerable because they have limited control over water availability.
Livestock and grazing systems also deserve attention. Heat stress, reduced access to drinking water and declining pasture productivity can damage rural livelihoods even when crop losses are not immediately apparent.
These risks vary across India and cannot all be attributed to El Niño. But the prospect of overlapping climatic shocks should concern policymakers. Agricultural adaptation cannot remain a collection of generic advisories issued after temperatures have already risen. Farmers need locally appropriate sowing calendars, heat-tolerant varieties, soil-moisture conservation, irrigation support and timely contingency plans.
Crop insurance also needs to evolve. If farmers can lose crops to heat stress and compound climate extremes, the compensation systems should gear up to cover more of the risks than being currently covered. Compensation should also be transparent and timely.
Perhaps the most alarming warning concerns the human toll of rising temperatures. An analysis by the
Climate Impact Lab, titled “451,000 at Risk”, projects about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year. Of these, about 7,400 deaths could occur between December 2026 and February 2027.
These are model-based projections, which underline the potential scale of preventable harm and the opportunity for early intervention.
India already has evidence of the economic burden of heat. The 2025 Lancet Countdown India data sheet estimates that heat exposure resulted in the loss of 247 billion potential labour hours in 2024. Agriculture accounted for 66 per cent of those lost hours, while the associated potential income loss was estimated at US $194 billion.
Consider what those numbers mean in a village. An agricultural labourer cannot simply switch on an air conditioner. A woman working in a paddy field cannot always forgo her daily wages because the temperature has crossed a dangerous threshold. A small farmer cannot postpone every agricultural operation until the weather becomes comfortable. For millions, exposure to heat is not a choice. It is the price of survival.
Repeated crop losses, mounting debt and growing water insecurity can also deepen psychological distress. Environmental philosopher Glenn Albrecht termed one such experience “solastalgia”—the psychological distress caused by the deterioration of one's familiar home environment. A 2021 study documented solastalgia associated with rising heatwaves, erratic rainfall, drying water sources and the erosion of traditional farming practices among rural communities in Bihar.
For many rural households, climate change is therefore not merely an economic or environmental crisis; it is also an assault on their emotional well-being and a sense of belonging.
Extreme heat also affects sleep, physical health, concentration and psychological well-being.
Older people, women, persons with disabilities and people with chronic illnesses may face additional risks, particularly where healthcare and social protection are inadequate.
Yet rural heat mortality and illness often remain poorly documented, and deaths are attributed to existing medical conditions without adequate recognition to heat exposure. The result is a dangerous policy blind spot: people who suffer most may remain least visible in official statistics.
It is now amply clear that climate change threatens rural livelihoods through interconnected pressures on water, food, health and income. Responding effectively requires institutions that can turn forecasts into practical protection.
Protect village water sources: Every water-stressed panchayat should have a practical water-security plan, backed by aquifer information, seasonal water budget, drinking-water source monitoring and contingency arrangements. Water conservation must be connected to watershed health, groundwater management and ecosystem restoration. The success of Jal Jeevan Mission must ultimately be judged by reliable, safe water delivery—not connections alone.
Make early-warning systems trigger action: India needs to integrate heat forecasts, rainfall outlooks, soil-moisture monitoring, drought indicators and local water conditions into district and panchayat preparedness. Emerging research on the movement of compound extremes should inform better regional risk assessment, while new forecasting approaches are tested for operational reliability. Farmers, workers and health services need actionable information, not merely colour-coded warnings.
Prepare farms before crops fail: For the 2026-27 rabi season, agricultural agencies should intensify locally tailored advisories on sowing windows, heat-tolerant varieties, irrigation and soil-moisture conservation. Planning for kharif 2027 should include appropriate contingency crops, short-duration varieties and support for rainfed farmers. Crop-insurance mechanisms should be reviewed to ensure that heat and compound climate risks are adequately recognised, with transparent and timely compensation.
Recognise heat as a rural disaster-management priority: Panchayat-level heat action plans should be developed or strengthened, with clear responsibilities and adequate resources. Shaded worksites, safe drinking water, rest breaks, locally adjusted working hours, access to primary healthcare and protection for vulnerable groups must become practical entitlements, not occasional advisories.
These plans must include agricultural labourers, small farmers, women, livestock keepers and community health workers in their design and implementation. A warning system without local capacity is little more than an announcement of impending suffering.
Build resilience beyond cities: India’s climate discourse remains disproportionately focused on urban heat islands, cooling technologies and metropolitan infrastructure. They must not eclipse the rural landscape that sustains the country’s food and water systems. The village well, the farm pond, the grazing commons, the tree-lined field boundary and the local wetland are all part of climate-resilience infrastructure. Their degradation makes rural communities more vulnerable to compound shocks.
A potentially historic El Niño is a warning, not a verdict. Whether it becomes a humanitarian and agricultural crisis will depend on how climate hazards interact with poverty, depleted natural resources, unequal access to services and the quality of public preparedness.