Natural disasters are becoming more common as the average temperature of the land and sea rises
Women and children being ferried to safety in a flooded Chennai. Photo: @chennaipolice_ / X (formerly Twitter) Cyclone Michaung made landfall in the coastal area of the Bapatla district of Andhra Pradesh on December 5, 2023. It has caused heavy damage in many districts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha through heavy rains and strong winds.
Chennai, in Tamil Nadu, was the worst affected. Around 11 people were injured and 18 died. The city roads were flooded, causing heavy traffic disruptions and forcing the closure of schools and colleges for three days. The services of electricity, water, mobile, etc. were also disrupted in many places.
The cyclone also brought strong winds of 90 to 100 kilometres (km) per hour, causing extensive damage to thousands of acres of crops, buildings, and infrastructure.
This was the sixth cyclone to emerge in the Indian Ocean in 2023. Earlier, Mocha, Biparjoy, Tej, Hamoon and Midhili cyclonic storms had made landfall along the Indian Ocean coastal areas. Four of them came to the Bay of Bengal.
Cyclonic storms in the Indian Ocean usually develop in May-June before the onset of the monsoon winds and in October-November after the return of the monsoon winds. Cyclonic storms in December are generally weaker and have lower wind speeds.
However, Michaung cyclone was categorised as “very severe”. Such intensification of a December cyclone is unique. The above-average sea surface temperature along the Andhra Pradesh coast led to the strengthening of Michaung, said Indian Meteorological Department officials.
The water in all the oceans of the world is warming rapidly, according to the reports of various organisations. The average sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean has increased more than other oceans, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 report, The Physical Science Basis.
The Indian Ocean has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to the preindustrial era, while other oceans have recorded an increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius in sea surface temperatures.
Oceans cover about 70 per cent of the earth’s surface and absorb 90 per cent of the greenhouse gases produced by human activities. This has resulted in an increase in the earth’s average temperature, which is slowing down. On the other hand, the increase in sea surface temperature is rapidly increasing the frequency and severity of marine disasters such as cyclones and tsunamis.
A degree Celsius increase in sea surface temperature increases the wind speed in the cyclone by 5 per cent. Cyclonic storms with higher wind speeds are more destructive.
During the period 1891-2017, the Indian Ocean had an average of five cyclones every year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Of these, four occurred in the Bay of Bengal and only one occurred in the Arabian Sea. Cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea were less intense than those in the Bay of Bengal.
Due to an increase in the average temperature of the surface water of the Indian Ocean, the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has also increased since 2018, as has the depth of their impact. According to a study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the frequency and intensity of cyclones are increasing in the Arabian Sea, and it is turning into a hotbed of cyclones like the Bay of Bengal.
The increasing number of severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean is a matter of concern for India. In the last five decades, about 60 cyclonic storms have hit the coastal areas of India, of which 40 occurred in October and November, 14 in May and June and only six in December.
The formation of high-speed cyclone Michaung in December and its destruction from Tamil Nadu to Odisha is also an important and serious warning of climate change for India.
India is surrounded by sea on three sides in the south and 10 of its states and four Union territories are located in the coastal areas of the Indian Ocean. As much as 40 per cent of India’s population lives in these states. People living in these states have to bear the brunt of marine disasters (cyclones and tsunamis) as well as rising sea levels.
An IMD report found 320 million people in the country were affected by cyclones every year in 1980-2000. Another report by Geneva’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Center stated 2.5 million people were affected by floods and cyclones in India in 2022. According to research published in the journal Nature Communications, 36 million of India’s population will be exposed to marine disasters by 2050 due to rising sea levels and 44 million by the end of the century.
In addition, according to a 2020 study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water of India, 75 per cent of the country’s districts have been affected by natural disasters due to climate change and 258 districts of the country have been affected by cyclones in the past decade.
Since 2005, the number of districts hit by cyclones has tripled compared to 1970 and the destruction caused by them has doubled. In this way, nature is warning India again and again that natural resources in coastal areas should not be tampered with under the guise of economic development; if this is not paid attention to, it may cost the country very dearly.
In India, although early warning of cyclones saves the precious lives of people, which is a commendable effort by the IMD and the National Disaster Management Force, the economic losses caused by cyclones are increasing every year. The governments of the coastal states need to be alert.
Constructions on water bodies (lakes, ponds, reservoirs, and storm drains) are the main cause of heavy damage in Chennai following Michaung. All water sources either absorb excess rainwater like a sponge or discharge it to the sea, lakes or ponds. But the area of Chennai’s water bodies has decreased from 12.6 square km in 1893 to just 3.2 square km in 2017, showed a research study by Anna University, Chennai.
According to the fifth and sixth reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, all natural disasters will hit India more than other countries of the world due to its geographical location.
In view of the increasing number of natural disasters due to an increase in the average temperature of the land and sea, governments of the coastal states should take good care of the natural resources like vegetation and water of their respective states as they act as natural protectors from marine disasters.
Coastal states should avoid establishing industrial units, large cities, and tourist attractions. Such development will destroy the natural vegetation, causing these areas to be more vulnerable to natural disasters than other areas.
The Union government should not relax coastal construction regulations, as it did in 2018 with the Coastal Regulation Zone Regulations, 2011. By doing so, the already environmentally sensitive coastal areas will be exposed to more natural disasters.
To cope with natural calamities, everyone has to be friendly with nature and preserve natural resources. Any place’s development should be for humans; if they are surrounded by disasters, development is meaningless. Therefore, development should be nature- and people-friendly.
Gurinder Kaur is former professor, Department of Geography, Punjabi University, Patiala.
Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.