Future fantasy

Future fantasy

We know that the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions come from the use of energy--69 per cent and growing. The issue is what can the world do to reinvent the way it uses energy? Are there any feasible technology options? What are the costs?

Under the International Energy Agency's (iea's) 2c scenario, the world's key options are to freeze coal, oil and even gas use at the 2005 levels; to substantially increase use of nuclear power (from 721 million tonnes of oil equivalent, or mtoe, in 2005 to 1,709 mtoe in 2030); to double energy from hydroelectric plants and increase renewable energy by 90 per cent over 2005 levels. However, even with this increase, the share of renewable energy will be only 17 per cent of primary energy use in 2030. What does increase is energy from biomass to run power stations and fuel vehicles.It also assumes that the poor of the world, who currently use biomass--firewood, shrubs, cow dung--will continue to use this energy source. In iea's best energy scenario, the share of biomass-based energy will jump from 10 per cent of the existing primary energy use to 14 per cent in 2030.

The big change is needed in the power-generation sector. To reach the 2c or the 23-billion tonne target for 2030, emissions from the power sector will have to be limited to 6.3 billion tonnes as compared to 19 billion tonnes in the business-as-usual projections. Even if no power plant is built after 2012, emissions in 2030 will still be in excess--of around 10 billion tonnes. To meet the target, some operating plants will have to be retired before their lifetime and new capacity added can only use zero-carbon technologies.

In terms of technologies, this best scenario banks on a thrust in three areas--energy efficiency in industry, buildings and electricity use (roughly 38 per cent); nuclear power (16 per cent); carbon capture and storage (21 per cent), where co₂ is pumped underground. The use of biofuels for transport accounts for 4 per cent of the avoided co₂ emissions in 2030, and renewable energy in the power sector roughly 19 per cent. In this technology-led energy scenario the answers lie in big bucks.

But this view of the world is rather limited. These answers do not add up to the transition that is needed to combat climate change. The energy transformation will require tougher measures so that renewables are not a side business but the key drivers of economic change. It will require countries to restrict and restrain the growth of private vehicles so that transport-related emissions can be cut drastically. It will require investment in creating conditions so that the world's poor (see graphics Capital costs and Running costs)--unconnected to the grid and users of renewable but polluting biomass--can leapfrog to clean energy, without taking the fossil route.

It calls for radical action. It calls for high investment today.
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