Speedway to hell

Speedway to hell

The one sector which is running amok in terms of growth of emissions is transport. Between 1990 and 2005, the maximum increase in emissions of rich countries was in this sector 28 per cent. It is virtually wiping out all other gains in emissions reductions. In 2000, transport contributed 14 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and in 2005 almost 50 per cent of oil consumption went into running vehicles.

There are an estimated 900 million automobiles in the world (excluding two-wheelers) and by 2030 this figure is expected to cross 2.1 billion. Aviation and shipping-related emissions are also rising. Options being considered to deal with transport-related emissions are

increasing fuel efficiency of vehicles;
running vehicles with fuel from plants-- biodiesel and ethanol

But gains from these are limited.The International Energy Agency (iea) estimates that improved efficiency and use of biofuels in vehicles can reduce co₂ emissions by 1.4 billion tonnes by 2030. Given that with business as usual, the world will emit 42 billion tonnes of co₂, this is a drop in the ocean. iea adds that to achieve this saving, cars sold in 2030 will need to consume 60 per cent less fuel than the average car of 2005. At current technological levels, only plug-in hybrids will meet this. While we will have to reinvent the vehicle, sheer numbers will negate all gains.

Cars are the sin of the rich. In 2002, over 35 per cent of the world's transport-related emissions were from the us. In 1990-2002--when Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated--transport-related emissions rose almost 25 per cent in the us and eu. These are expected to rise 30 per cent by 2020 (see table Vehicle production and co₂ emissions and graph Total and per capita emissions).

The fact is that the global business of vehicles is too powerful to be contained. More important, the business has transcended boundaries the us remains the largest car market, while vehicles are made in China, Brazil, India and Indo-nesia. World trade in vehicles, parts and accessories in 2003 had reached us $700 billion--10 per cent of global trade. Disturbing it would be difficult.

The world refuses to see that the answer to transport-related emissions will lie not in tweaking technology but in reinventing mobility in cities. Only Singapore has been able to restrain the growth of private vehicles and provide mobility. Efficiency is not enough. Sufficiency and reinventing consumption are the way out.
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