Southeast Asia most vulnerable global region; experts state that climate-health linkage is not a priority
Representational Photo from iStock Hospitals, often the last sanctuary for people facing emergencies including climate-triggered ones, are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, according to a new global study released on December 2, 2023, in London.
The analysis has been released just a day before the ongoing 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Covention on Climate Change hosts a day-long discussion about the impacts of climate change on health, a first for any COP. India has been found to be the worst-affected country in terms of gross number of hospitals which may be potentially affected.
The study, Global Hospital Infrastructure Physical Climate Risk, has been carried out by XDI (Cross Dependency Analysis). XDI is part of The Climate Risk Group, a group of companies committed to quantifying and communicating the costs of climate change. XDI is specialised in physical climate risk analysis.
The report found that 1 in 12 hospitals around the world could face partial or total shutdown from climate change-triggered extreme weather events by century-end if countries continue to emit unabatedly. This figure is double compared to present statistics.
India tops the list of gross number of possibly impacted hospitals — 5,120 of 16,245 global hospitals. Proportion-wise though, the figure — around 10 per cent of the assessed sample in case of India — has been found to be less than that of several countries including China and Japan.
The document said in India, the proportion of hospitals at high risk of being shut down by extreme weather events would be 5.7 per cent by 2050. Such events would affect almost 1 in 10 hospitals by century-end if emissions are high. On a proportional scale, the Central African Republic was found to be the worst off with about 57 per cent of its hospitals being vulnerable. Laos, the Philippines and Nepal were next in the list.
Overall, around 200,000 hospitals have been studied. Of these, 2,100 hospitals are likely to be at high risk, most of them in low- and middle-income countries.
The impacts of climate change likely to affect hospitals and deny common people access to them during emergencies have been qualified in the report as hurricanes, severe storms, flooding and forest fires among others.
“Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world. What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises,” said Dr Karl Mallon, director of science and technology in XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative).
“All of these 16,245 hospitals will require adaptation, where practical … relocation will be the only option for many,” pointed out the report. It added: “Limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius with a rapid phase out of fossil fuels would halve the damage risk to hospital infrastructure, compared to a high emissions scenario.”
It warned: “If emissions are high, the risk of damage to hospitals around the world from extreme weather will increase more than four-fold … by the end of the century. In a low emissions scenario, this increase in risk is reduced to just 106 per cent.”
The report considers a rise to the scale of 1.8°C, compared to the pre-industrialised period, as low. However, a rise to 3°C and above has been projected under a business-as-usual scenario.
Though the 2015 Paris Agreement vouched to keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C, experts expect a rise to the tune of 1.8°C can be realistically possible under the best emission scenario.
Southeast Asia has the highest percentage of hospitals at high risk of damage from extreme weather events in the world. “With high emissions, almost 1 in 5 hospitals (18.4 per cent) in Southeast Asia will be at high risk of total or partial shutdown by the end of the century,” warned the report.
It added: “By 2050, a third of all the most high risk hospitals (3,357) in the world will be in South Asia if emissions are high (while) by 2100 this could increase to 5,894.”
Eloise Todd, executive director of Pandemic Action Network, a global health advocacy group, said: “The human impact of 1 in 12 hospitals shutting down — and up to 1 in 5 in Southeast Asia — would be nothing less than catastrophic.” Todd observed: “The chain reaction that climate change puts into action must be stopped at the source by ending the burning of fossil fuels.”
“The figures are on expected lines. Domestically, climate change hardly gets the attention it deserves. Far less when you consider its impact on health in general and health systems in particular,” observed an Indian observer who works with health issues and is attending COP28. Yesterday, Prime Minister Modi claimed in front of a global audience that India had been successful in combating climate change.
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