47 per cent chance of deficit rainfall this year, says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its second long range forecast on south west monsoon, said the monsoon is expected to be normal at 96 per cent Long Period Average(LPA) with model error of 4 per cent. It also forecast weaker El-Nino conditions will continue during the monsoon season.  

However, in July, there is possibility of weaker monsoon. In its second forecast, the IMD said there is probability of 47 per cent deficit or below normal rainfall. In Its first long range forecast on April 15, it flagged the probability of 49 per cent deficit rainfall.  

Region-wise, the IMD forecast deficit monsoon in the north-east region, and below normal rainfall in north-west region.  

The season rainfall is likely to be 94 per cent of LPA over north-west India, 100 per cent of LPA over central India, 97 per cent of LPA over southern peninsula, and 91 per cent of LPA over north-east India all with a model error of ± 8 per cent. 

Rainfall over the country, as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September), is most likely to be normal (96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ± 4 per cent.  

The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 95 per cent of LPA during July, and 99 per cent of LPA during August — both with a model error of ± 9 per cent.  

The current weak El Niño conditions over the Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season, with some possibility of these conditions turning to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season.

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