These districts have received deficient or no rain so far
Uttar Pradesh has been the most affected, as 28 of the 75 districts in the state have reported no rains. Representative photo: iStock. About 71 per cent of the districts in India have not received any rainfall or experienced a deficit in the current monsoon season, according to Down To Earth’s analysis of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.
Of the 718 districts across the country, 511 reported large deficient, deficient or no rains at all in the current season. While 347 districts reported large deficient rainfall, 126 others registered deficient rainfall.
Only 5 per cent of districts, or 85 districts, reported normal rains in the country since the onset of the monsoon declared on June 8, according to the figures available until June 20, 2023.
A map showing the distribution of rainfall. Credit: Pulaha Roy.
As of June 21, the IMD has recorded 61.9 mm of rain so far this year, against the normal rains expected of 92.8mm, registering a deficit of 33 per cent. The average rainfall for June based on Long Period Average (LPA) is 166 mm. LPA is measured over a particular region for a dedicated month or season average for a long period, like 30 or 50 years.
| Percentage of rainfall | Category |
| 60%+ | Large excess |
| 20% to 59% | Excess |
| -19% to +19% | Normal |
| -59% to -20% | Deficient |
| -99% to -60% | Large deficient |
Uttar Pradesh has been the most affected, as 28 of the 75 districts in the state have reported no rains, which alone amount to a 37 per cent deficit.
However, Debasish Jena, agrometeorology scientist, district agromet unit, Cuttack, said the monsoon would likely improve in the coming week. “There have been no rains so far in major parts of the country which has affected the sowing season. But monsoon activity is likely to pick up between June 23 and 29,” he said.
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Jena said that above-normal rainfall conditions are expected in southern and eastern parts of India. “Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha and Maharashtra are likely to see increased rainfall activity. The remnant of cyclone Biparjoy is also assisting to delivering rainfall in western parts of the country,” he added.
Jena said the rains received should enable farmers to begin sowing. “It is likely that the rains will help to improve the moisture content in the soil, optimal for farmers to begin sowing. A cumulative rainfall of 75-100 mm will help farmers in the process. The rains should help cover the deficit experienced so far,” Jena told DTE.
| Year | Rainfall in mm | Deficit in percentage |
| 2004 | 158.7 | 4 |
| 2005 | 143.2 | 13 |
| 2006 | 141.8 | 14 |
| 2009 | 85.7 | 48 |
| 2010 | 138.1 | 16 |
| 2012 | 117.8 | 29 |
| 2014 | 95.4 | 42 |
| 2016 | 147.6 | 10 |
| 2018 | 155.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | 113.5 | 32 |
| 2022 | 152.3 | 8 |
However, the Standardised Precipitation Index of the IMD predicted between May 25 and June 21 indicated the central part of the country to be under severely, moderately and mildly dry conditions.
Pulak Guhatkurta, a senior scientist at IMD, Pune, said the conditions are already dry in many parts of the country. If the expected rains fail to deliver, the drought indices will shift to severely dry conditions in the coming week.
“IMD is regularly monitoring the dry conditions. It would be too soon to predict a drought for now. Advisories are being issued for farmers accordingly,” he added.
However, if rainfall continues to be in deficit by the end of June, it would become another year in the past 20 years to have seen deficit rainfall. Some 10 years in the past two decades have witnessed deficit monsoon. A severe rainfall deficit of 48 per cent was recorded in 2009, followed by 2014, which registered 42 per cent deficit for June. The year 2019 witnessed 32 per cent deficit, while 2014 saw 29 per cent less than the average expected rainfall.
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