It was the most vulnerable countries that clearly called for GST to reference a phaseout of all fossil fuels, analysis shows
Photo: iStock This year the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will conclude the first Global Stocktake (GST) — an assessment of the progress of countries towards their climate targets — after a two-year process.
Including key themes of mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage and finance, the GST is expected to provide directions for greater climate ambition.
In a new briefing paper released ahead of COP28, Delhi-based think tank the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) assessed more than 35 submissions made by countries to UNFCCC, outlining their expectations from the final GST outcome.
CSE also spoke to negotiators from seven blocs and countries to better understand their perspectives on the key elements. When summarised, it is clear that there are varying opinions on certain themes, with an almost clear divide between the developed and developing blocs.
The paper was released at a webinar convening climate experts and negotiators, who laid out their visions for what an ambitious and equitable GST outcome can look like.
Established under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, GST aims to serve as an evaluation of countries’ progress towards global climate action. In 2015, countries agreed on concluding the first GST in 2023, with the process repeating every five years. It was mandated that the Conference of Parties agree to conduct the GST “in a comprehensive and facilitative manner, considering mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support, and in the light of equity and the best available science”.
Reports of growing mistrust between developed and developing countries and worsening climate change impacts make the GST not just a mirror to countries’ progress but a defining moment for equitable climate action over the next decade.
Country & Negotiating Bloc positions on key discussion points in GST
Source: CSE, based on UNFCCC submissions in February and September 2023 for GST outcomes
A strong focus on equity, albeit with different perspectives, was observed. For developing blocs, equity remains associated with the equitable right of the Global South to the remaining global carbon budget to aid their development. A principle enshrined in UNFCCC, this would mean the developed countries have used up their share of the carbon budget through their historical emissions and are now expected to rapidly decarbonise.
On the other hand, developed countries are pushing for equity to be redefined in this decade to include “emerging emissions” that would also bring countries like India, South Africa and recently developed China into focus. Evidently, the divide showed up in the assessment of the mitigation elements.
On adaptation, most countries reiterated the goal to double adaptation finance, either as a demand or as a commitment. However, this target may no longer be enough.
While loss and damage has been agreed as a separate section in the current proposed GST outcome draft, it was not negotiated as a standalone theme and was clubbed with adaptation during GST. So, some submissions clearly highlighted it as a separate component to be assessed with the development of its own loss and damage fund, the analysis showed.
For developing countries, it is important that the GST stresses the need for more public, grant-based climate finance to come in from developed nations. In contrast, Global North blocs had a clear focus on the need for more private finance to be mobilised.
The phase out of fossil fuels is critical to meeting the 1.5°C target and CSE expected it to be a key discussion point this year. Most countries did not mention fossil fuels at all in their submissions. It was the most vulnerable countries, including the Least Developed Countries and the Alliance of Small Island States, that clearly called for GST to reference a phaseout of all fossil fuels.
Most developed countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, supported the phaseout of “unabated” fossil fuels, which refers to the use of carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture technologies.
Russia mentioned that a complete phaseout of fossil fuels could negatively impact the social wellbeing of their population. The African Group of Negotiators stated that developing countries must retain the right to use fossil fuels in order to develop before they transition and developed countries must be directed to take the lead and begin decarbonisation immediately.
With less than seven years remaining to 2030, the target year for the climate commitments of many countries, GST comes at a critical juncture with a sobering message that there is much more ambition needed to curb emissions, adapt to impacts and mobilise finance.
GST was expected to look back at the ambition of developed countries and assess their climate action efforts versus what they should ideally be based on historical emissions burden. Global South countries have made specific demands, and while the hope is that no demand stalls discussions and thereby progress, it is also important that poor and vulnerable countries stand their ground and do not accept watered down compromises that will define the rest of this decade in terms of climate action
Alongside this, GST must provide direction for stronger implementation and targets for 2030. The GST is expected to feed into parallel processes of the Mitigation Work Programme, Global Goal on Adaptation, Loss and Damage Fund and New Collective Quantified Goal to make them stronger and in alignment with equity and the needs of the Global South.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.