Climate phenomenon to keep temperatures above normal and influence regional rainfall
Photo: iStock The 2023-24 El Nino phenomenon, experienced globally, is one of the five strongest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated on March 5, 2024.
The El Nino peaked in December and is weakening gradually. However, it is likely to continue its impact on global climate in the coming months, thereby fuelling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities, the WMO said in a statement.
“The current El Nino event, which developed in June 2023, was at its strongest between November and January. It displayed a peak value of about 2.0°C above the 1991 to 2020 average sea surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. This made it one of the five strongest El Nino events ever, though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events,” the statement added.
The WMO predicted above normal temperatures across almost all land areas for three months, between March and May. It is likely to affect regional rainfall patterns.
“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was quoted as saying in the statement.
Saulo added that ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly indicated El Nino. But sea surface temperatures have been persistently and unusually high across other parts of the world over the past 10 months.
The press statement observed that the January 2024 sea surface temperature was registered as the highest for January. “This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone,” Saulo noted.
The statement predicted about 60 per cent chances of the phenomenon continuing during March-May. There are 80 per cent chances of neutral conditions that is neither El Nino nor La Nina in April-June.
There is a chance of La Nina conditions developing later in the year, but scientists are yet to ascertain the facts.
El Nino is the warmer phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. It occurs on average every two to seven years and persists for about nine to 12 months. It is associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather and storm patterns in various parts of the world.
The seasonal climate pattern usually has higher influence on the global climate during the second year of its development — in this instance 2024.
An El Nino usually causes increased rainfall and floods in the Horn of Africa and southern parts of the United States. It influences unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and South Africa. Previous instances have been known to exacerbate drought conditions in northern South America and bring drier and warmer conditions in South Africa.
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