IMD forecasts indicate that cyclone Biporjoy might have a landfall as a severe cyclone but dissipate after landfall to a deep depression
Cyclone Biporjoy intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm at 5.30 am on June 11, 2023, and is likely to make landfall in Gujarat, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
It is very likely to move nearly northward till the morning of June 14. It will then travel north- northeastwards and cross the Saurashtra and Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) around noon of June 15 as a very severe cyclonic storm. The maximum sustained wind speed will be 125-135 kilometres per hour (kmph) gusting to 150 kmph, the IMD said.
The cyclone is expected to remain an extremely severe cyclone through June 11 and then de-intensify into a very severe cyclone on June 12, 5.30 am.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model also makes a similar forecast. The predictions as visualised by the software Windy show that the cyclone will make landfall in Gujarat on June 14. According to EMCWF, wind speeds could reach 68 kmph before making landfall in Gujarat.
According to the United States Department of Defense agency Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Cyclone Biporjoy is expected to hit northwest Gujarat on June 15.
“This is the 8th Category three cyclone in the Arabian Sea in pre-monsoon since 1982. Of this, seven have formed after 2000 as per JTWC. A massive increase in the intensity of cyclones in the last 2 decades,” Vineet Kumar, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM, wrote on Twitter.
Another weather forecast model, Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts that it will likely make landfall in Pakistan on June 15. Wind speeds could reach 120 kmph a few hours before landfall, the GFS data, as visualised by Windy, showed.
The forecast of the cyclone’s track has been changing. The IMD had earlier predicted that it would move north-westwards.
Cyclone Biporjoy is now the strongest cyclone in the Arabian Sea after Tauktae according to both IMD and JTWC, Kumar tweeted.
The cyclone underwent rapid intensification for the second time in its lifetime and intensified from Category 1 (65 knots) to Category 3 (105 knots) in the last 24 hours, the expert explained.
However, Biporjoy is likely to be less severe than Taukate, which formed in May 2021.
“Tauktae was an extremely severe cyclone and maintained its cyclone status over land for more than a day,” Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology told Down To Earth.
IMD forecasts indicate that cyclone Biporjoy might have a landfall as a severe cyclone but dissipate after landfall (in about six hours) to a deep depression, he added.
The IMD has issued a heavy rainfall warning for Gujarat. It has predicted light to moderate rainfall in most places. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected at isolated places over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagadh and Morbi districts in the state’s Saurashtra and Kutch regions on June 14.
The intensity of rainfall, it added, would increase. Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar are predicted to receive extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places while a few places over Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi and Junagadh districts of Gujarat could receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on June 15.
Isolated heavy showers are very likely over the remaining districts of Saurashtra and the north Gujarat region on June 15.
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