Chaos-in cyberspace

ON JANUARY 1, AD 2000, New Year revellers all over the world would wake up too dazed and bleary eyed to comprehend the unprecedented technological fallout that would occur at the turn of this century. That day, countless computers will go haywire, as the date configuration in them would be unable to cope with AD 2000, a four-digit year.

For, till lately, computer software designers worldwide had provided for just two digits in the year field to save computer memory. Then computer memory was a costly commodity; it is no longer so. Now 01-01-00 does not make any sense to ' the computer. Rectifying this omission is considered a mammoth task by experts, which involves several human-years for each computerised firm and a cost of us $600 billion globally.

According to a spokesperson of the Computer Management Group of the UK, any large size company will need to invest not less than us $50 million to change over to the new software being developed.

Software firms in India have already geared up to meet this challenge, while computer users still have to comprehend the problem. "It is a seller's market," says PCL Computers' national marketing manager, Sameer Kochhar.

If the computers are not rectified, any information that contains a date from the year 2000 will not work, computer experts point out. And dates make a crucial entry in most of the computer programmes.

Saurabh Srivastava, man Iaging director of the iis Infotech Ltd says, "As 1999 becomes 2000, most computer systems will interpret it as '00' or as '1900'; and since 00 is less than 1999, credit cards will expire immediately. Inventories will show false ageing, medical supplies will expire, public utilities will cut service, insurance systems will show expired policies and payroll systems and social security systems will show negative ages."

And, mind you, there will be chaos in cyberspace! For, anything beyond basic maths is Greek to computers. Imagine the scenario: 94 minus 89 may equal five years; but 00 minus 89 yields - 89 years, a concept unacceptable to the computer and its unfit for operation.

Some programmes also use '99' to indicate the end of a file or the end of a tape raising the bizarre possibility that software could inadvertently halt as we reach the year 1999, some computer experts point out. The situation is perceived in the computer industry as 'the year 2000 problem'. Even the solution whereby a four-digit system for all dates is reverted to, is a simple but tedious process.

In the us where the problem is most widely recognised, computer wizards have been raking their grey matter over the issue. Data Dimensions, a Los Angeles-based computer firm estimates that one out of every 20 lines of software code needs changing. Even that will be troublesome, in the case of complex programmes used by large computerised firms.

Says Kochhar, "People who have written the programmes used by individual companies, have retired or even died. And there is little documentation regarding the programme. So the programme has to be analysed and changes made." S R Balasubramanian, general manager (information technology) of Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Ltd (GHCL), estimates that concern of the GHCL'S dimension would taketwo human-years just to modify their own software.

There is no reliable data on the magnitude of the problem that will be faced by computer users in India. Says a computer expert with the department of electronics, "The problem is there. But we have yet to officially acknowledge it."

Fortune 100 firms, the 100 biggest concerns worldwide, estimate their software conversion costs between ors $50 to $100 each. Rohit Jain, senior systems analyst of Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd, told in a recent inter-view to Computer Worlu@ "The year 2000 problem is a time bomb on which we are all sitting."

There is no proverbial 'silver bullet' to solve the problem. "Those who know how to deal with the problem are in great demand; they get the money they want," says Kochhar. The wing of the PCL making software for international market - PCL Mindware -7 has increased its strengthfrom 600 to 2,600 to tackle the problem, he points out.

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