Namibia’s Etosha National Park and Eswatini’s Hlane National Park will most likely become too hot for rhinos
Rhinoceros do not sweat and instead cool themselves off by bathing and finding shade. Photo: iStock A new study has highlighted the sensitivity of rhinoceros populations to rising temperatures due to climate change, which are expected to quickly increase above the animals’ acceptable maximum threshold. The rising heat is impacting black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinos in southern Africa, a research team from the University of Massachusetts Amherst has found.
The study, published in the journal Biodiversity, also underlined that southern Africa will be affected by both higher temperatures and changing precipitation.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the continent has seen its average monthly temperatures rise by 0.5-2 degrees Celsius over the past century. Up to 2°C of warming are projected over the next 100 years, along with disruptions to rain patterns.
A recent book series by Springer projected the climate change future of southern Africa. The region will see a generally drier and substantially warmer regional climate system, with more intense rainfall events in the east. There is a clear risk of southern Africa becoming less habitable under high levels of global warming, it further said.
This temperature increase in Africa is particularly problematic for rhinos, as they do not sweat and instead cool themselves off by bathing and finding shade.
Southern Africa is home to the vast majority of the world’s black and white rhinoceros populations, holding 80 per cent and 92 per cent respectively. The region’s climate is also changing rapidly as a result global warming.
The study focused on the five large national parks in southern Africa: Namibia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania and Eswatini that are home to most of the rhinos.
In this study, the research team used two climate change scenarios — the IPCC’s high-emissions scenario and a more moderate emissions scenario for the years 2055 and 2085 — to predict temperature and precipitation changes in southern African national parks, as well as the impact those changes would have on rhino populations.
Under the moderate emissions scenario, each park will experience a warming of approximately 2.2°C by 2055 and 2.5°C by 2085. Under the high emissions scenario, each park will be 2.8°C warmer in 2055 and 4.6°C warmer in 2085.
Almost every park will become drier as emissions rise, with the exception of Tsavo West National Park in Kenya, which will receive more rainfall, the study added.
The researchers discovered that temperature changes are greater than what rhinoceros species can withstand and that changes in precipitation will hurt rhinos. Thus, climate change will have a significant negative impact on the likelihood of occurrence of both species.
The study said:
The temperature conditions in all study parks will become increasingly unsuitable for both species, but it is predicted that white rhinos will be affected earlier than black rhinos. All the parks are showing drastic changes in the occurrence probability of rhinos. And under the high-emissions scenarios, the probability of occurrence of either species shrinks to zero by 2085.
The study also had bad news for Namibia’s Etosha National Park and Eswatini’s Hlane National Park, which will most likely become too hot for rhinos in either scenario. To ensure the rhinoceroses’ survival, park managers should begin planning adaptations to manage rising temperatures.
Traditional conservation efforts to protect rhinos have focused on poaching, but there has been no analysis of the impact of climate change on the animals, according to the study.
“This paper highlights the importance of using climate predictions for both park and rhino management. We propose that park managers think now about increasing water supplies, tree cover, watching for stress and planning to allow rhino migration as the world warms” said Timothy Randhir, senior author of the study and professor of environmental conservation at UMass Amherst.
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