IMD expects it to maintain cyclone strength for only 12 hours on November 17
The deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal at 6.30 pm on November 16, 2023. It is forecast to move north-northeastwards and further intensify into a cyclone. Screengrab: Windy.com A cyclone could make landfall along the Bangladesh coast on November 18, 2023, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest cyclone update.
The low pressure area that had formed over the south Andaman Sea on November 14 quickly intensified into a depression the next day and into a deep depression on November 16.
In the early hours of November 16, the system lay as a deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal, 380 kilometres east-southeast of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and 380 km south of Paradip in Odisha.
The deep depression would move north-northeastwards and further intensify into a cyclone, the IMD predicted. The cyclone would be named ‘Midhili’ once it forms, a name contributed by the Maldives.
The weather agency currently expects it to maintain cyclone strength for only 12 hours on November 17. After that, the system may decrease in intensity to a deep depression.
“The current deep depression is likely to intensify to cyclonic system by today night (November 16) and will reach Bangladesh tomorrow early morning (November 17),” according to Vineet Kumar Singh, a research scientist at the Typhoon Research Centre of Jeju National University in South Korea.
On the other hand, IMD predicted that the system could cross the Bangladesh coast between Mongla and Khepupara as a deep depression with wind speeds of 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr in the morning of November 18.
There are still chances of the cyclone intensifying rapidly as has happened in the case of many cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region in the recent past.
There was also a chance of two back-to-back cyclones in the Bay of Bengal this week. A second upper air cyclonic circulation had formed over south-west Bay of Bengal but IMD said that this cyclonic circulation would not lead to the formation of a low pressure area or a depression.
“The next system is unlikely to form,” Singh confirmed to Down To Earth.
Cyclone Midhili will be the second cyclone of the season in the Bay of Bengal after cyclone Hamoon in late October. Cyclone Hamoon made landfall along the Myanmar coast on the intervening night of October 24-25. It had changed its categories four times in day and kept the IMD on its toes.
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