Delayed monsoon: Centre asks districts to be ready with contingency plans in case of drought-like conditions

While private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services on June 13 confirmed a ‘below normal’ southwest monsoon with a 60 per cent chance of drought, the Union Agriculture ministry, in a meeting on June 12, has asked different states on their preparedness with regards to their contingency plans in case the monsoon progress is sluggish. 

The country has district-wise contingency plans for agriculture that were prepared in 2010 and include information about the districts’ agro-ecological zone, rainfall, irrigation and land-use patterns, crops cultivated and the sowing window, among others. It also lists the kinds of emergencies the district is prone to and strategies like short duration seed varieties to counter them.

Ideally, these plans should be put into action depending on the rainfall deficit. 

In the meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) on June 12, the ministry advised all states to be ready with the plans and to see that these are in an implementable state if there is a drought-like situation, said a member of CWWG who attended the meeting.

The government also maintained that there is no reason to panic now and even though the monsoon has been delayed, IMD forecasts suggest that the progress will be normal. 

However, on June 13, Skymet said that rain during the June-September monsoon season was expected to be 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) on account of El-Nino conditions. 

In the first 14 days of June, when the monsoon usually officially begins every year, 50 per cent districts in the country recorded ‘large deficient’ rainfall and 19 per cent recorded ‘deficient’ rainfall, while nine per cent districts observed ‘no rain’. 

The huge deficiency has been because the onset of monsoon has been delayed this year and happened only on June 8. 

A normal and well-distributed monsoon is crucial for the 61 per cent of Indian farmers who are dependent on rains for practising agriculture. Already, farmers have skipped sowing during the first half of the month, owing to no rainfall in many parts of the country. Only those who have access to irrigation sources have been able to prepare their fields and sow the crops. 

Usually by this time, paddy nurseries are prepared but there are no chances of rain as of now, said Raman Yadav, a farmer from Chhattisgarh’s Dhamtari district. “It seems like many farmers here won’t be able to sow till June end. It was delayed last year also but we managed to do it after June 20. But it doesn’t seem like it this year.”

This is also visible in the sowing data released June 9, 2023. Of the four major Kharif crop categories — rice, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals — the first three have shown a decline in sowing progress compared to last year.

Area coverage of paddy was 28.22 per cent less compared to the corresponding period in 2022. Against 0.491 million hectares (ha) in 2022, only 0.352 million ha has been sown as of June 9, 2023, according to the latest data released by the government.

Similarly, there is sowing of pulses on almost 38 per cent less area when compared to 2022, when 0.175 million ha was covered under Kharif pulses till June 9. This year, 0.109 million ha has been recorded. All major pulses like arhar, urad and moong have shown a decline.

Coming to oilseeds, crops like groundnut, sunflower, soybean and sesame have all recorded a dip in area compared to 2022. The overall decline in area coverage by oilseeds crops was 32.78 per cent.

In Maharashtra too, farmers are waiting for the first sign of rainfall and only then they will take up nurseries of Kharif onion and sow other crops like soybean, cotton and horticulture crops. 

“It’s a problem even for those who have irrigation sources because the groundwater has not been recharged because of low rainfall,” said Bharat Dighole, a Nashik-based farmer and president of the Maharashtra State Onion Grower’s Association. 

The situation is different in Punjab, Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh as farmers Down To Earth (DTE) spoke to in the state said they have started sowing with already existing irrigation sources like tubewells.  

The government, meanwhile, has advised to go for pigeon pea, soybean and sorghum sowing currently and paddy for those which have access to an irrigation source. 

June and July are the two most important Kharif months, especially for those who practise rain-fed agriculture. But a comparatively drier June is increasingly causing trouble for farmers. A dry June means the ground moisture levels are not conducive for sowing. 

Last year, DTE analysed IMD data for 30 years, from 1988 to 2018, covering 676 of India’s 730 districts in 28 states and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The analysis revealed that 420 districts in the country (62 per cent of the districts covered in the data) had seen a decrease in rainfall in June.

There have been discussions of updating the crop calendar by moving the month of June from the cycle and revising it with district-specific monsoon and soil moisture conditions. 

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