This study comes as 2023 was designated as the hottest year on record while January 2024 was the warmest January on record globally
Representative photo from iStock The Bay of Bengal and the Philippines are likely to face record-breaking average air temperatures in the year up to June 2024 due to El Nino, according to a new study published in Scientific Reports.
El Nino is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The heat released to the atmosphere from the western Pacific Ocean during an El Nino causes an accelerated rise in annual global mean surface temperatures.
This slight increase “has been strongly linked to significant increases in surface air temperatures during extreme regional heating events,” reads a press statement on the study.
El Nino arrived in 2023, after a three-year-long run of La Nina, the cool phase of the recurring ENSO.
It was at its peak in December 2023. It is now starting to weaken. There is a 55 per cent chance of La Nina developing in June-August 2024, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In the study, Congwen Zhu from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues modelled how the 2023-2024 El Nino affected the average surface air between July 2023 and June 2024 and how it varied from the 1951-1980 mean.
Their analysis showed that under a moderate El Nino scenario, the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines could experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024.
Under a strong El Nino, these regions — along with the Caribbean Sea, South China Sea and areas of the Amazon and Alaska — were likely to face record-breaking average surface air temperatures.
The researchers projected that there was a 90 per cent chance that the global mean surface temperature would break the historical record.
Under the moderate El Nino scenario, the 2023-24 global mean surface temperature is estimated to be 1.03-1.10 degrees Celsius (°C) above the benchmark 1951-1980 mean. Under the strong El Nino scenario, it is projected to be 1.06-1.20 °C above that mean.
These increases come with other risks. The researchers warned that high surface air temperatures could make extreme climate events (including wildfires, tropical cyclones and heatwaves) more likely, particularly in oceanic and coastal areas.
The higher heat capacity of the ocean, the researchers explained, could lead to climate conditions persisting for extended periods.
This study comes as 2023 was designated as the hottest year on record. The trend continues. January 2024 was the warmest January on record globally, with average surface air temperature reaching 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average for January and 0.12°C above the temperature of the previous warmest January, in 2020, according to Copernicus.
Further, the global mean temperature from February 2023 to January 2024 is 0.64°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. This is the highest on record.
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