Emission reduction reaches a plateau; overshoot to 1.5-degree Celsius rise inevitable; says multiple reports
Photo: Jayanta Basu Global emissions from oil are projected to rise most steeply in 2023 compared to 2022, pushing back coal and gas; found a report released on December 5 as the cry for cutting down fossil fuel grows bigger within COP28. The rise in oil emissions is expected to be almost the same as increases in coal and gas taken together, shows the data.
The report, Global Carbon Budget, pointed out that the global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached an all-time high in 2023; increasing over the level calculated last year.
“The annual Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, up 1.1 per cent from 2022,” read the report, reminding that global action to cut fossil fuels is not happening fast enough to prevent climate change that is assuming dangerous proportions.
The report stated that “global emissions from coal (1.1 per cent), oil (1.5 per cent) and gas (0.5 per cent) are all projected to increase”. It further pointed out that “atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to average 419.3 parts per million in 2023, 51 per cent above pre-industrial levels”.
Canada’s extremely destructive wildfire season has been referred as a reason of worsening scenario by the report. “Global CO2 emissions from fires in 2023 have been larger than the average (based on satellite records since 2003) due to an extreme wildfire season in Canada, where emissions were six to eight times higher than average,” the report said.
The expected emissions rise in India during 2023 compared to 2022 is over eight per cent, one of the toppers globally. But it remains much below developed countries in terms of overall emissions volume. India is responsible for over a twelfth of global emissions and ranks third globally in terms of gross emission volume, though much low in the rank of per capita emissions.
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) report is prepared every year by a global consortium of scientists since last two decades to establish a common and mutually agreed understanding of the Earth carbon cycle and is extremely comprehensive.
The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich and 90 other institutions around the world.
The report pinned the onus of increasing carbon emissions mainly on fossil fuel-linked emissions and land-use change like deforestation. The report projected that total global carbon dioxide emissions from these two areas will be 40.9 billion tonnes in 2023.
“This is about the same as 2022 levels, and part of a 10-year “plateau” — far from the steep reduction in emissions that is urgently needed to meet global climate targets,” observed the report.
Scientists have repeatedly pointed out that more than 40 per cent global emissions is required to be cut by 2030 to keep global warming rise restricted within 1.5 degree Celsius, a Paris agreement target.
The Emissions Gap Report 2023, published recently, reminded that “(though) temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (and) … the world is heading for a 2.5-2.9°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels unless countries step up action and deliver more than promised in their 2030 pledges under the Paris Agreement”.
It also predicted that “2030 emissions must be cut by at least 42 per cent compared to current policy scenarios to get on track for the 1.5°C goals of the Paris Agreement respectively”.
The carbon budget report says that in 2023, compared to 2022, the emission is projected to increase in India by 8.2 per cent, China by 4.0 per cent and decline in the EU by 7.4 per cent, US by 3.0 per cent; and the rest of the world by 0.4 per cent.
“The impacts of climate change are evident all around us, but action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow,” pointed out Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
“It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive,” he further pointed out.
The study warned that “at the current emissions level, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates a 50 per cent chance global warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently in about seven years,” with a rider that the “estimate is subject to large uncertainties, primarily due to the uncertainty on the additional warming coming from non-CO2 agents”.
Another report published today by Climate Action Tracker vindicated the claim.
“Despite government promises, warming projections have not improved since Glasgow two years ago, amid worsening climate impacts. In a year where every continent experienced record-breaking heat, wildfires, tropical cyclones or some other extreme events, there has been no discernible shift in action,” read the report, adding that “Government 2030 targets will lead to 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century”.
The Climate Action Tracker “Optimistic” scenario, which includes consideration also of all announced targets in addition to the binding ones, results in warming of 1.8°C, still well above 1.5˚C.
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