By transitioning to a low-carbon economy and building resilient communities, India can play a leading role in shaping a more sustainable future for all
The absence of active Western Disturbances, reduced rainfall activity, and clear skies over most of the country during February 2023 were key factors contributing to the record-breaking warmth. Photo: Sunny Gautam / CSE For a free download of the report, click here
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has declared that 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record globally, with a greater than 99 per cent likelihood.
This trend is mirrored in India, where the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that 2023 saw its warmest ever August and September in 122 years. The country’s warming trend is evident in the consistently above-average temperatures recorded across all seasons, as per India 2023: An assessment of extreme weather events brought out by Down To Earth (DTE) magazine and the Centre for Science and Environment.
The winter season, typically India’s second-wettest season after the monsoons, has been unusually dry and warm in recent years. In 2023, both January and February, the two months that comprise the winter season, were warmer than average. This pattern has been observed for the past three years, indicating a significant shift in India’s winter weather patterns.
This year saw one of the warmest ever February on record since 1901, shattering all previous records. This extreme warmth was accompanied by exceptionally low rainfall. Central India received negligible rainfall, the lowest since 1901, while the Northwest region experienced a 76 per cent rainfall deficit.
Experts attribute the unusual winter seasons and extreme weather events to the evolving Western Disturbances (WDs), a series of cyclonic storms that originate in the Mediterranean and travel over 9,000 km to bring winter rains to Northwest India.
WDs play a crucial role in India’s weather patterns, particularly in the distribution of winter rainfall. Climate change is disrupting the frequency and intensity of WDs. Studies suggest that the absence of active WDs, reduced rainfall activity, and clear skies over most of the country during February 2023 were key factors contributing to the record-breaking warmth.
In March 2023, the rainfall over Central India and the Southern Peninsula was the highest and 7th highest, respectively, since 1901. The IMD states that several weather systems, including troughs and cyclonic circulations (swirling winds in the middle and upper troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere) connected to two consecutive WDs, were responsible for the rainfall and hailstorms, which peaked during the week of March 16-23, 2023.
In April 2023, the country witnessed hailstorms on 27 of the 30 days. On 7 days (April 12-19), heatwaves were experienced in at least nine states.
These humid heatwaves over India and Bangladesh during April were made 30 times more likely by climate change, according to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) released on May 17, 2023. These heatwave events are expected to affect India and Bangladesh once every five years and would have a heat index that is 2ºC higher than usual.
The heatwaves during June 2023 across at least 12 states/UTs have been attributed to human-caused climate change by Climate Central. During June-August 2023, 11 states/UTs experienced higher temperatures that were made at least three times more likely by the climate crisis as per analysis based on the Climate Shift Index, Climate Central’s daily temperature attribution system.
The frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves over India have shown an increasing trend over the last 50-60 years. Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are likely the cause of this observed trend in heatwaves, as per a report released by the India Meteorological Department on April 26, 2023.
In the future, greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are likely to increase further, alerted IMD report. The duration of heatwaves in India increased by about 2.5 days between 1961 and 2021 due to global warming.
This is only likely to increase further. By 2060, there will be an increase of about two heatwaves per season; the duration of heatwaves too will rise by 12-18 days by then. Currently, on average, the maximum duration of a heatwave is two to four days.
The escalating climate crisis demands urgent action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changing climate. India has taken steps to transition to a cleaner energy future, but more needs to be done. Investing in renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency and adopting sustainable practices are crucial steps in reducing India’s carbon footprint. Additionally, strengthening early warning systems and building resilience to extreme weather events are essential for protecting communities and livelihoods.
India’s experience with extreme weather events serves as a stark reminder of the far-reaching impacts of climate change. Addressing this global challenge requires a concerted global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changing climate. By transitioning to a low-carbon economy and building resilient communities, India can play a leading role in shaping a more sustainable future for all.
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