Indian Ocean island experienced one of its hottest Octobers, with even the capital and highlands experiencing record heat
Sambiana Manjakandriana on Oct 9, 2022. Photo: Rivonala Razafison Madagascar, the world’s fourth-largest island and its second-largest island country, is known for its biodiversity. But the Indian Ocean state, located just off the coast of the African mainland, has experienced a heat wave at least two months early this year, something which is worrying locals.
The African country experienced its hottest October on record this year. Temperatures were more than 2.5°C above average, a heat which is normally not experienced until December or January, highlights the outcome of a study conducted by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) published in November 2023.
“Antananarivo, the capital city in the Madagascar highlands and home to more than three million people, experienced some of the most intense and unusual heat,” reads a press release the WWA issued on November 23.
“Madagascar is already being impacted by climate change, making life harder for millions of people. While Antananarivo’s cooler highlands climate makes it a more comfortable place to live, the capital city will continue to experience more and more dangerously hot days and nights as the climate warms,” observed Rondrotiana Barimalala, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Research Center and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research who was involved in the study.
The WWA researchers wanted to quantify the effect of climate change on the heat wave in Madagascar. Scientists analysed weather data and model simulations using peer-reviewed methods to assess how the event has changed between today’s climate with approximately 1.2°C of global warming and the cooler pre-industrial climate
They found that the October heatwave over Madagascar and seven-day minimum temperatures in Antananarivo were at least 100 times more likely because of climate change. These would have been virtually impossible in a 1.2°C cooler world, without warming from the burning of fossil fuels. The seven-day maximum temperatures were at least 10 times more likely due to climate change.
The unusually hot October has left the Malagasy perplexed.
“What about the ongoing weather? When will it be raining?” Ndrenoavy Veloarimanana, a farmer in the Amboasary Gare district of Moramanga in the eastern section of Madagascar’s highlands, asked on December 17.
A woman in Antananarivo told this reporter she was worried about the warm climate: “(The temperature in) Antananarivo has never been like this. December is about to end. However, there are still no rains. Maybe I would not have remembered the weather of the last year. Each year, it rains abundantly on Nativity night (Christmas Eve) and on New Year’s Eve too. But it’s not sure that it will be the case this year,” she voiced her concerns.
“Even a woman with stilettos keeps walking in my rice fields. She will never have her feet stuck in the mud as the (completely dried) soil is solidly compact,” Fetra Andrianala, another farmer in the Manakambahiny Andrefana district of Ambatondrazaka, joked about the current situation in the Malagasy highlands.
Fetra’s district is part of the island’s main rice bowl. Poor rains are expected in the coming days as highlighted by weather forecasts.
Some regions of Madagascar experienced rainy days in November and December. Day temperatures though, especially in the capital and in some parts of the highlands, appear to be higher than usual this year.
“Abnormally hot conditions are expected in parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar,” noted the Famine Early Warning Systems Network in its latest release on December 8-14, 2023.
The study also found that people living in Madagascar are highly vulnerable to extreme heat. Around 91 per cent of the population live in poverty and 50 per cent do not have access to clean water or electricity.
Many live in informal housing, making common coping strategies to deal with extreme heat inaccessible to most of the population. The WWA study noted Madagascar needs more investment in weather forecasting, early-warning systems and heat planning to increase resilience to heat.
The consequences of the hot temperatures put the population at health risks, among others. “Warmer temperatures are multiplying risks in Madagascar. At around 1,280m above sea-level, the cooler climate of Antananarivo was once a barrier for mosquitos carrying malaria. However, warmer temperatures have increased the range of mosquitos in Madagascar and malaria cases in Antananarivo are rising,” said Sanyati Sengupta, technical advisor at Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
Scientists point out that the October heatwave in Madagascar would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. “With heatwaves set to intensify in Madagascar, it is critical communities and governments take steps to become more resilient,” warned Rondrotiana Barimalala.
Madagascar ranks 124th out of the 125 countries in the 2023 Global Hunger Index. With a score of 41.0, the country has a level of hunger that is alarming.
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