The GGA is being framed as a global target for countries and communities to aspire and take guidance from, something which is proving difficult
Photo: @UNUEHS / Twitter The informal consultations on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) have hit major roadblocks by the end of the first week of negotiations, even after a decently successful sixth workshop under the Glasgow Sharm El Sheikh (GlaSS) Work Programme for GGA on June 4 and 5, 2023 at the Subsidiary Bodies 58 in Bonn, Germany.
The path towards the adoption of the GGA framework at the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Dubai, also essential for the Global Stock Take (GST) process, looks more muddy than before. This, even when many developing countries are calling for a text to come out of SB 58 on GGA, for it to be adopted at COP28.
The GGA is being framed as a global target for countries and communities to aspire and take guidance from, similar to the temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
It is challenging to frame a singular global target for measures taken by communities and countries to adapt to the ongoing impacts of human-induced climate change.
These impacts are varied and include both rapid-onset extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and floods and slow-onset events such as sea level rise, melting of glaciers and long-term droughts.
The Working Group II report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in February 2022, clearly states that many regions around the world, especially in developing countries have already reached the limits to which they can adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Even then, wherever it is still possible to adapt, the measures for adaptation can differ from one country to the other and also from one geographical region to the other within a country.
For instance, coastal communities would need a different kind of target for adaptation, mostly related to sea level rise and tropical cyclones, while communities living in the mountains would need a different target, mostly adapting to melting glaciers.
Countries are trying to bring these varied targets under one common framework under the GGA.
The main contentions within the negotiations for GGA that still remain are:
“Developed countries do not want to discuss finance within the framework for GGA and they don’t see the principles of equity, common but differentiated responsibilities being included in GGA as well, because then they (developed countries) would be, sort of, excluded from it,” Nicolas Zambrano, adaptation expert and negotiator from Ecuador told Down To Earth (DTE).
Another contention with GGA is how it would feed into the GST. Within this, there is a divergence of positions not just between developed and developing countries but also within the developing country groups.
“Some countries think that we are a bit late in giving technical inputs to the GST or even inform the high level events of the GST that are to take place this year,” said Zambrano.
As part of the sixth workshop under GlaSS, negotiators discussed the various metrics and indicators that can be used to define the targets under the GGA framework.
“The sixth GlaSS Workshop was useful in understanding the different views of Parties and Observers on how to translate the proceedings of the workshop into the negotiation rooms,” Sandeep Chamling Rai, senior advisor and global lead on adaptation with the World Wildlife Fund, told DTE.
“There are a couple of issues still lingering such as the envisioning of the GGA framework, whether it should be short term — five years — in keeping with the GST process or should it be long-term — up to 2050 — in keeping with the net zero targets,” he added.
The discussions eventually veered towards three sets of targets — short-term till 2030, mid-term up to 2040 and long-term up to 2050.
Adaptation is a complex issue which is also linked to the mitigation target of keeping the average temperature rise of the planet within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“So in the context of a rapidly changing climate the measures of adaptation planned and taken now, may not work a few years down the line. Therefore, the GGA needs to be flexible and the indicators need to be adaptive,” Rai said.
The targets have to be both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative targets could be based on the estimation of the number of people at climate risk by the IPCC.
“In the Assessment Report 6 (AR6) reports released in the past couple of years the number is 3.3 to 3.6 billion people who are highly vulnerable to climate change. A target could be to bring this number down to 2 billion people by the AR7 (the next assessment cycle of the IPCC reports),” said Rai.
Another way to define targets is qualitative in terms of different sectors such as food, water, health, infrastructure and eco systems. “But the definitions of what constitutes sectors have to be devised in a way that they can be a common ground for all countries,” Rai added.
Finance and implementation on the ground are also crucial. In this context, the planning and development of national adaptation plans (NAPs) and their implementation becomes paramount. NAPs are to be prepared by countries on how they would go about adapting to the various impacts of climate change on national and sub-national levels.
“Therefore, we need targets for finalisation of NAPs by 2025 and also for means of implementation such as finance, technology transfers and capacity building. Then, an assessment of countries on the extent they have implemented their top five adaptation priorities as listed in their NAPs,” noted Rai.
This can be carried out till 2030 (short-term). Then, second versions of NAPs can be prepared by the countries based on the learnings from the assessments of the first set of plans.
“The problem is that we are not really focusing on what is needed which is a global target that is understandable for policy makers, practitioners and people from vulnerable communities. This has been a problem since last year when we started discussing a framework instead of a target,” Zambrano highlighted.
“It is good to have a framework but we don’t have enough information getting aggregated through the framework to be able to frame a target for policymakers,” he added.
Another issue is with the finance gap. Developed countries do not see the need to talk about the adaptation finance gap within the GST. They are blocking that discussion which dilutes what could be the action required to achieve any target for adaptation. This puts developing countries in a very difficult position.
The two processes of GGA and GST are happening in parallel and not entering a common ground sufficiently and they can meet only at the high-level events during COP28. There is still no clear connection between the two.
“Article 7.14 doesn’t just talk about the GGA but also the recognition of efforts put in towards efficient and adequate finance for adaptation in developing countries,” concluded Zambrano.
The negotiators on GGA would need more time from now till COP28 to be able understand more about the global target and see who can give them more information on this.
“May be the IPCC can do that or perhaps a task force of researchers, mainly from Global South countries. If these steps are not taken, we would have a weak decision on GGA at COP 28,” Zambrano said.
All this is also happening in the light of the agenda for the Bonn conference itself not being adopted after eight days of negotiations. All negotiations would count for nothing if the Parties are unable to adopt the agenda by June 15.
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