Government and independent experts assure there is no cause for worry
Representational photo from iStock India has reported 19 COVID-19 deaths so far in December 2023. Ten of these were in Kerala, Palakkad-based COVID-19 data analyst NC Krishna Prasad told Down to Earth (DTE).
“We are going to see a rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in the days to come, owing to the state’s robust reporting system and higher geriatric population with comorbidities,” Prasad reasoned.
“In Kerala, ex gratia payment is still being offered to the family of the deceased after every COVID-19 death. Hence, all deaths are compulsorily reported in the state,” Prasad added.
The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) is in touch with state health authorities and is monitoring the situation. Further, India recorded 260 fresh COVID-19 cases on December 17. Of these, 227 cases were from Kerala alone, MoHFW data showed.
As for active cases, 1,634 of the 1,828 active cases reported on December 17 were in Kerala. The ministry said most of these cases were mild and recovering at home without treatment.
This increasing trend of COVID-19 cases in Kerala has been attributed to the increased testing of influenza-like-illnesses (ILI) as part of routine surveillance activity by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), the health ministry said. INSACOG is a network of genomic laboratories across India.
According to revised surveillance guidelines, patients with ILI and severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) are tested for COVID-19. Those who get a positive test result are referred for Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS).
India’s first COVID sub-variant JN.1 case was detected in Kerala, during the customary INSACOG testing activity, Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research Rajiv Bahl indicated in a press briefing.
The RT-PCR positive sample, from Karakulam in Thiruvananthapuram district, was detected on December 8. It belonged to a 79-year-old woman whose test was conducted on November 18. She had mild ILI symptoms and has since recovered.
A mock drill by the INSACOG is underway between December 13 and December 18. Its aim is to assess the preparedness of states’ health facilities at present to handle an upsurge of COVID-19 cases.
JN.1 is a mutation of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.86, which has been reported in 38 countries. It was reported in the United States (US) in September this year. “Currently, our best estimate indicates about 21 per cent of circulating viruses may be JN.1,” the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
Kerala Health Minister Veena George assured the media on December 17 that there is no need for any concern. “It is a sub-variant. It was just found here. Months ago, this variant was detected in a few Indians who were screened at the Singapore airport. It is just that Kerala has identified the variant here through genome sequencing. There is no need to worry. The situation is being closely monitored.”
Co-chair of INSACOG’s advisory board, and a professor at the Indian Institute of Science, Saumitra Das told DTE, “Testing has to be ramped up now across the country, particularly at airports. Starting from December 2019, we have seen an increase in COVID-19 cases during Christmas and other festival times.”
Das added that there’s no point in worrying about the lone JN.1 case reported. It doesn’t push the panic button because we have a large population vaccinated with prior exposure and immunity. Even if there is a rise in cases, increased severity is not expected with this new variant.
“However, at the same time, we must not become complacent in spots where the surge in cases is being reported. Particularly, the aged population and those with comorbidities should start wearing masks to avoid exposure in large gatherings, which could cut down the spread of infection,” he advised.
Karnataka has issued a Covid advisory for people above 60 years of age to wear masks if they have flu-like symptoms. Surveillance has been increased in the border districts among suspected cases and people exhibiting symptoms.
“Every state can consider such precautionary measures and ramp up testing,” Das said.
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