India, Indonesia, Bangladesh & Vietnam host to most under-construction coal projects worldwide: Report

China accounts for more than 95 per cent of the coal plant capacity beginning construction in 2023, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a not-for-profit cataloging coal projects worldwide.

Outside of China, as of October, the latest report identified 110 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity under consideration in 32 countries, amounting to 131 coal projects. Ten countries comprise 83 per cent of the total capacity proposed, led by three countries, namely India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, according to a quarterly update of GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker.

The organisation’s Global Coal Plant Tracker is an online database that maps old coal-fired units and new proposals since 2010, of 30 megawatts and larger.

The researchers identified a trend of coal projects being shelved, but having no impact as new projects were proposed simultaneously worldwide this year.

In the first nine months of 2023, 18.3 GW of coal capacity moved from being proposed to being shelved or canceled. These projects were primarily in 10 countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-800 MW), Botswana (-600 MW), Brazil (-340 MW), Indonesia (-2,260 MW), Laos (-1,000 MW), Mongolia (-5,280 MW), Serbia (-1,350 MW), Türkiye (-5,630 MW), Ukraine (-660 MW), and Vietnam (-450 MW).

“Coal plant projects are considered “shelved” when no updates or developments have been identified on the proposed projects for at least two years. The projects are “canceled” when either a cancellation announcement was made or no updates or developments have been identified for at least four years,” the researchers explained how they made their assertions.

These cancellations were accompanied by 15.3 GW of entirely new proposals under consideration in India (8,640 MW), Indonesia (2,500 MW), Kazakhstan (4,078 MW), and Mongolia (50 MW).

Inactive coal proposals (4.2 GW) also appeared under potential consideration once again in 2023 in Botswana (300 MW), India (2,200 MW), Nigeria (600 MW), the Philippines (700 MW), and Russia (430 MW).

Outside China, as of the latest available data (July 2023), Southeast Asia and South Asia have the highest capacity under construction. The report said India (31.6 GW), Indonesia (14.5 GW), Bangladesh (5.8 GW), and Vietnam (5.4 GW) make up 84 per cent of the 67 GW under construction excluding China.

India, in particular, has had a shift in its goals to meet its rising energy demands. In a recent meeting with various stakeholders in the power sector, the Union Minister of New and Renewable Energy said the country will add 80 GW of coal-fired power plants by the financial year 2032, up from 27 GW, mentioned in the National Electricity Plan 2022-32 (NEP).

“We have 27 GW under construction, and we had thought that we would add another 25 GW. But we have decided that we will start work on at least 55-60 GW of thermal capacity,” Singh had said.

According to GEM data, the third quarter of the year saw projects appearing or progressing in six different states, namely Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh.

The coal plants include Adani Raigarh Thermal Power Plant, Anpara-E Power Station (MUNPL), Binjkote Power Station, Ib Valley Thermal Power Station, Kajurda Power Station, Koderma Thermal Power Station, Raikheda Power Station, and Satpura Thermal Power Station.

Ultimately, four non-captive Indian coal plant projects (4.5 GW) have received permits in the first nine months of 2023, up from zero in all of 2022, the report added.

“Ten other coal plant proposals (12.4 GW) also moved forward in the permitting process by receiving Terms of Reference, and five additional coal plants or expansions (6 GW) have been announced or re-announced so far this year,” the report added.

In 2022, China was the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, and since last year 152 GW was permitted and 169 GW announced, according to GEM.

China has continued pursuing coal aggressively even after Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to strictly control coal-fired power generation projects in April 2021.

Construction on new coal plants outside of China hit a record low since 2015 of less than 2 gigawatts (GW), below the nearly 16 GW annual average for the same set of countries in the last eight years.

“A key indicator of coal power capacity growth — new construction starts — looks set to decline outside of China for the second year in a row,” the report said.

However, building new unabated coal power plants must stop to limit global warming to the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the authors said.

United States climate envoy John Kerry and International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol together said in an editorial published in The Washington Post, “Tripling renewables without also halting the building of new dirty coal plants would be like training for a marathon while smoking five packs of cigarettes a day.”

Flora Champenois, project manager for the Global Coal Power Tracker, said in a statement: “Seeing new coal starts to bottom out and the face-off between projects under consideration versus those that have been dropped is a welcomed dose of reality ahead of tough negotiations at COP28. Governments, utilities, and banks all have a role to play in accelerating the global coal to clean energy transition, starting with an end to new coal projects.”

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