Are India’s forests nearing their carrying capacity to support tigers, who are apex predators? DTE puts the question to scientists
In April 2023, India announced that its wild tiger population has increased to a healthy 3,167 from just 1,400 in 2006. However, almost 30 per cent of the tigers roam outside the protected areas and regularly enter human habitations.
There is also concern over shrinking tiger corridors—patches that connect two large areas of forest—due to the construction of linear infrastructure such as railway lines, highways and canals.
Moreover, tigers are believed to be leaving forests in pursuit of herbivores that are increasingly foraying into human-dominated landscapes since the natural flora on which they survive is overtaken by invasive species such as lantana, a plant introduced to India by the British.
Does this mean that India’s forests are nearing their carrying capacity to support tigers, who are apex predators? Should the country consider capping its tiger population or look at other solutions?
K Ullas Karanth
Emeritus Director, Centre for Wildlife Studies
India’s tiger bureaucracy recently claimed that the country has attained a wild tiger population of about 3,000 and that their population should now be capped at 3,500-4,000. Both claims are scientifically faulty. The tiger bureaucracy claims there were about 1,800 tigers in the early 1970s and this number rose steadily to 3,600 by 2002, before suddenly crashing to 1,400 by 2006. The crash happened because in 2005, a taskforce appointed by the then Prime Minister replaced the widely followed practice of using pugmarks to count tiger numbers with a new national tiger estimation (NTE) process. The country has stuck with NTE despite several criticisms. Using it, the tiger bureaucracy had cleverly “reset” the base tiger numbers from 3,600 in 2002 to an improbable low of 1,400 in 2006, thus setting the stage for claims of successes in subsequent years. At the same time, instead of making the raw data available for public scrutiny, the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) now only releases glossy summary reports every four years. India’s current reserves cover only 20 per cent of the 380,000 sq km of forests that can support tigers. The wild animal’s population is at very low densities in the forests of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and the northeastern states. So, the country has a carrying capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 tigers.
The present compassionate but unscientific solutions to emergent conflicts, such as feeding and rescuing incapacitated wild tigers, artificially enriching tiger habitats, and above all, translocating “problem” tigers, should be abandoned. Only then can we attain the important goal of rewilding viable populations of our national animal across its former range.
Dharmendra Khandal
Conservation Biologist, Tiger Watch
India is currently reassessing its tiger conservation campaign. The country today is home to 70 per cent of the world’s wild tiger population. It also recently became the most populous country, surpassing China. The rising tiger numbers have sparked debates around capping the tiger population to arrest human-tiger conflicts. Instead, the focus should be on management of human-wildlife conflict in a way that balances the needs of humans and wildlife.
There is massive scope for improving our forest management practices. India has 53 tiger reserves spread over 75,000 sq km, which means a significant portion of the forests can still be conserved to provide sanctuary for tigers. Just 20 tiger reserves cover one-third of the area for tiger conservation. These reserves house less than 100 tigers, highlighting inequitable population distribution.
Efforts should be intensified to expedite the voluntary relocation of villages within tiger reserves by ensuring adequate compensation for the relocated communities.
Ranthambhore, the world’s driest tiger habitat, provides enough water to irrigate 300 villages through the existence of 20 dams, despite being an arid region. Still, local residents perceive the tiger sanctuary as a forest developed for foreign tourists. The imposition of tiger population control measures will send a misleading message to the general public. It can lead the public to unfairly blame the entire wildlife conservation effort for any minor difficulties that may arise in future from human-wildlife conflict.
Dogs kill more people in India every year than tigers. The ecological role of dogs remains unclear. In light of these circumstances, it prompts us to question the true level of threat tigers pose.
Uma Ramakrishnan
Professor, National Centre For Biological Sciences, Tata Institute Of Fundamental Research
We have much to celebrate right now. The revised assessment for tigers from International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reveals that the species is recovering globally. India’s recent assessment also shows a healthy wild tiger population of 3,167.
But are 3,000 tigers enough? More than numbers, we must focus on conservation and management. In India, tigers have recovered only in some parts of the country. The next 50 years should ensure tiger recovery happens across the country, which is important to maintain the genetic variation.
Tigers will thrive only in landscapes that include clusters of connected populations. Landscape genetics studies have shown that linear infrastructure, like roads, negatively impacts tiger movement.
The future of tiger conservation should be inclusive. Human rights must be kept paramount in action to facilitate tiger conservation. Landscapes inhabited by tigers harbour many other species, whose conservation is equally important.
As a scientist, I wish my grand-daughters see wild tigers just as my daughters did, and that tigers exist in functional ecosystems where they cohabit with other species, securing India’s natural capital for centuries to come.
Bilal Habib
Professor And Scientist F, Wildlife Institute Of India
Not only does India have the largest wild tiger population in the world, but it records the animal surviving in different landscapes—the Terai Arc, central India, the Western Ghats, the Sunderbans, the Northeast and the Gangetic Plains.
The conservation problems of today require us to move beyond counting tigers to directional research. These could include understanding movement of tigers living in human-dominated landscapes, social tolerance and carrying capacities in tiger landscapes.
India has safeguarded the largest surviving population of wild tigers from extinction by embracing a metapopulation framework wherein small protected areas (PAs) are connected through functional habitat corridors. Tiger dispersal between PAs is essential for maintaining gene flow and sustaining healthy tiger populations. Thus, dispersal is one of the most sensitive aspects of tiger conservation, which is under a grave but preventable threat.
Currently, 70 per cent of wild tigers in India live inside PAs and 30 per cent live outside. Deaths among tigers outside PAs are on the rise. Today’s conservation paradox deals with dispersing tigers or spillover tiger populations from reserves. Currently, the rural landscapes are conducive to the movement of tigers. Some of the tigers have travelled more than 3,000 km through a matrix of forested and agricultural areas for more than six months without being noticed. This is important in the context of tiger conservation outside PAs.
India is set to undergo massive development in the coming years, particularly in rural areas. Thus, the next decade is critical in terms of infrastructure development, conservation and harmonisation of the two.
The future of large carnivore conservation depends primarily on the continued support of local communities. Human-tiger conflict is currently dealt with as and when it occurs. Going forward, we need to continually monitor areas prone to conflict to understand the site-specific drivers of conflict. Thus, conflict management has to be based on comprehensive background information emanating from evidence-based research.
This was first published in the 1-15 July, 2023 edition of Down To Earth
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