Methane: Can COP28 advance reduction efforts, international cooperation on the greenhouse gas?

Methane, the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, has significantly contributed to the planet’s warming since 1750. Its emissions have contributed about a quarter of the cumulative warming, translating to 0.5°C of global temperature increase, compared to carbon dioxide (CO2)’s contribution of 0.8°C. According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), every million tonnes of methane emitted results in the loss of roughly 300 million hours of work and 145 kilotonnes of crop globally. Global emissions of methane in 2019 stood at 11,000 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Sixth Assessment Report, calls for a 34 per cent methane reduction by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to ensure that the world has a fighting chance of staying within the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit. This is achievable due to methane’s short atmospheric lifetime (12-15 years, compared to 150-200 years of CO2) and high global warming potential (28 times that of CO2).

Motivated by scientific warnings, countries united under the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework in Glasgow in 2021. This voluntary agreement aims to collectively reduce global methane emissions by at least 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030, a target that could avert over 0.2°C of warming by 2050. Spearheaded by the US and the EU, so far 149 countries have signed GMP, without which global methane emis-sions would rise by 13 per cent by 2030, according to US presidential climate envoy John Kerry.

While GMP and scientific warnings have spurred discussions on methane reduction strategies, translating these discussions into concrete domestic policies and actions remains a challenge. To gauge the headway made in curbing me-thane emissions, Down To Earth (DTE) evaluated the pledges and domestic policies of the EU and 15 nations, which in 2022 collectively discharged 68 per cent of the global methane emissions. Of these, 12 have signed GMP and nine have mentioned methane in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement of 2015. The analysis shows that the ongoing discussions and commitments around methane reduction are encouraging, but the need for comprehensive action remains urgent.

A lot to show

Since US President Joe Biden declared methane mitigation a “climate game changer” at COP27, the US has taken significant strides to address the potent greenhouse gas (GHG). The country has implemented the Inflation Reduction Act last year that provides incentives for methane mitigation and imposes a tax on the oil and gas sector for their methane emis-sions. The US has also rolled out the Super-Emitter Response Program that mandates oil and gas operators to respond to credible third-party reports of high-volume methane leaks. The US has also committed to share methane-abatement technologies with international partners such as Nigeria, Canada and Mexico. This March, the country allocated nearly US $47 million to support 22 research projects that are developing methane emission monitoring methods.

Seven other major methane-emitting countries—Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and Qatar—have also established national plans or policies. Three more—China, Russia, and the UAE—have recently announced comprehensive domestic action plans.

Though not a signatory to GMP, India has several programmes that incorporate methane emission reduction strategies. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, established to promote climate-resilient practices, is tasked with reducing methane emissions from rice cultivation. Similarly, the National Livestock Mission aims to develop improved bovine breeds that will contribute to methane reductions. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research is developing technologies with methane mitigation potential.

On November 15, 2023, the EU adopted a new law to curtail methane emissions from its oil and gas imports. The law aims to reduce methane leaks by oil and gas companies operating within the region.

Despite the hype around methane mitigation, only 13 per cent of its emissions are covered by the policies, says a May 2023 study by a team headed by Maria Olczak at the Queen Mary University of London, UK. The researchers add that current policies are also not stringent enough, particularly those directed towards emissions from the fossil fuel sector. This is unfortunate as the world already has readily available solutions to cut methane emissions from the sector. It is also relatively easy to locate and fix methane leaks. “Fossil fuel and agricultural industries have opposed new policies as they could raise the cost of production. Other factors include the relative importance of those industries to national economies, energy and food security or rural poverty considerations,” Olczak tells DTE.

Problems persist

Three of the 15 countries analysed by DTE do not have methane reduction policies: Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Iran. These three countries collectively account for 7 per cent of global methane emissions.

Indonesia, the seventh largest methane emitter in 2022, remains heavily reliant on coal for energy generation. The country recently announced plans to convert diesel-fuelled power plants to gas-fired power plants, a move that could further increase methane emissions.

Saudi Arabia, despite being the world’s leading oil and gas producer, lacks a dedicated methane reduction policy. The country has even been criticised for undermining fossil fuel phaseout language in an IPCC report that was excluded from the formal UN climate negotiations in 2019. Iran also lacks a methane reduction policy and is not a signatory to GMP. Even Iran’s NDC does not mention methane, despite being criticised for climate inaction.

Oil and gas is the highest emitting sector for six of the 15 countries DTE analysed. These countries, which include Russia and Saudi Arabia, are often blockers of climate action, particularly on the issue of fossil fuel phaseout, say climate negotiators who wish to remain anonymous.

Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest methane emitter, unveiled a methane plan in November 2023, but it falls short of expectations by omitting quantifiable emission reduction targets and timelines. The plan essentially outlines China’s intention to enhance methane emission monitoring, reporting and verification, along with a phaseout of gas flaring in the oil and gas sector by 2030. It, however, conspicuously avoids setting targets for the coal sector, a major contributor responsible for nearly half of China’s total methane emissions. To grasp the scale of this omission, consider that China’s coal sector emitted more methane in 2021 (18 million tonnes) than the total methane emissions by the EU.

In 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that the country would cap its coal consumption by 2023. In contrast, the country’s reliance on coal intensified in 2022 due to severe droughts that hampered energy generation from hydro-power projects.

Some countries have also kept unambitious targets to reduce methane emissions. UAE’s NDC sets an upstream methane intensity target—emissions as a percentage of natural gas produced—of 0.15 per cent by 2025. This is less ambitious than what is already achieved by neighbouring Qatar (0.06 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (0.14 per cent), according to a 2023 study by Harvard University researcher Zichong Chen and colleagues. The study estimates that methane leaks in the UAE stood at a staggering 3.3 per cent in 2019, indicating leaky infrastructure combined with deliberate venting or incomplete flaring of gas.

Methane leaks from the oil and gas sector, also known as fugitive emissions, constitute a significant environmental concern. IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report estimates that these leaks accounted for 5.8 per cent of GHG emissions in 2019. A 2023 study published in Environmental Research Letters by Brown University’s Deborah Gordon reveals that even leakage rates as low as 0.2 per cent can render natural gas as harmful to the climate as coal.

Agriculture, the largest methane contributor in seven of the 15 analysed countries, along with the EU, is also often overlooked in mitigation efforts. The seven countries represent a diverse mix of developing nations with significant agricultural employment, such as India (18 per cent GDP dependence on agriculture), Pakistan (23 per cent) and Brazil (8 per cent), and developed countries like New Zealand, Australia and Mexico, where agriculture contributes less to GDP but harbours industrialised agricultural sectors.

The EU’s latest NDC update proposes expanding its Emissions Trading System to include methane emissions from shipping but excludes agriculture. Livestock emissions are responsible for 71 per cent of New Zealand’s total agricultural emissions. However, agricultural emissions are not yet incorporated into the country’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

New Zealand and Australia have among the highest per capita methane emissions from agriculture in the dataset, with 0.23 and 0.09 tonnes per capita, respectively. Despite these significant agricultural emissions, they receive less scrutiny compared to the fossil fuel sectors that also emit methane.

The lack of mandatory reporting requirements for agricultural emissions in several major emitting countries further exacerbates the issue. Australia exempts agriculture from its National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme, the country’s framework for measuring and reporting GHG emissions, including methane. Similarly, the US Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, despite reporting emissions from various sectors, does not include agricultural emissions, potentially leading to a significant underestimation of methane emissions from the US.

The reporting gap extends beyond agricultural methane emissions. A recent report by The Guardian reveals that the COP28 host, the UAE, has not reported any methane emissions, even though countries are mandated to submit GHG inventories every two years through the Biennial Update Report process since 2014. These gaps in reporting create a lack of transparency and hinder effective mitigation efforts.

A February 2023 analysis by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition in Paris, France, found that only a “full implementation” of methane reduction actions outlined in 86 per cent of NDCs would achieve a global emissions reduction of 31 per cent. And nationally announced plans often consist of a mix of guiding principles with limited enforcement and potential loopholes, along with occasional regulations. This heterogeneity makes it difficult to assess the overall impact on emissions.

In a notable development ahead of COP28, the US and China announced efforts to collaborate on climate action through the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis. This statement includes a commitment to address methane emissions, with both nations pledging to implement their national methane action plans, develop methane reduction targets for their 2035 NDCs, and co-host a Methane Summit at COP28.

Furthermore, the US and UAE have spearheaded efforts to raise funds for methane reductions. The UAE COP Presidency has proposed a fund to support methane mitigation in the oil and gas sector, while the US initiated the Methane Finance Sprint in April 2023, aiming to raise at least $200 million in new public and philanthropic donor support for developing countries to tackle methane emissions. The US has recently expressed confidence that this goal will be exceeded at COP28.

These developments highlight the growing recognition of methane’s significant climate impact and the urgent need for concerted action to address it. The stage is set for COP28 to provide a platform for advancing methane reduction efforts and strengthening international cooperation on the issue.

This was first published in the 1-15 December, 2023 print edition of Down To Earth

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