Rainfall deficit in a third of the districts in the country, may worsen due to El Nino
There were floods and flash floods in several parts of the country, like Delhi, in July. Photo: Vikas Choudhary / CSE A rainy July in monsoon 2023 led to floods and flash floods in several states in India. But the next two months may be drier than normal for most of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest forecast.
The weather agency has also finally declared weak El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are generally detrimental to rainfall during the monsoon season and have led to droughts in the past.
For the country as a whole, the rainfall in August and September is likely to be normal or, more likely, less than normal, according to IMD. August may be distinctly below normal in terms of rainfall.
Most parts of southern and many parts of western, north west and central India may receive below normal rainfall in these two months. The regions close to or along the Himalayas, east central and some parts of east and north east India may receive normal to above normal rainfall.
Read more: Bihar faces drought-like situation again, farmers prepare to migrate for work
The distribution of rainfall across India for August will also be similar. The lack of rainfall may also come with heightened temperatures in many parts of the country, both during the day and at night.
The regions with above normal daytime temperatures will include most parts of southern, east and northeast India and many western areas of northwest India and central India. Most of the country would experience warm nights, except for some parts of northwest India.
The predictions for the lack of rainfall and heightened temperatures go along with IMD’s declaration of the prevalence of weak El Nino conditions. The statement came almost a month after the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) on July 4.
However, the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had declared EL Nino conditions on June 8 — almost two months ago.
El Nino is the warmer than normal phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon and has suppressed monsoon rainfall over India in the past. Of the 22 El Nino years since 1901, India has witnessed drought-like conditions in 16 of them, showed IMD data.
El Nino is to intensify in the months to come and is predicted to last at least until early 2024, according to the IMD, WMO and NOAA.
Read more: Southwest monsoon progresses after stalling for 12 days
At the end of the first two months of the monsoon season, all India rainfall is at four per cent above the normal. Seven states have deficient rainfall at the end of this period.
Three of these states — Manipur (51 per cent), Mizoram (35 per cent) and Tripura (23 per cent) — are in the northeast. Three of them — West Bengal (20 per cent), Jharkhand (43 per cent) and Bihar (47 per cent) — in the east and Kerala (35 per cent) in the South.
Two states — Gujarat and Rajasthan — have received large excess (more than 60 per cent excess) rainfall. Two Union Territories, Ladakh and Chandigarh, have received large excess rainfall.
Apart from this, five states and five Union Territories have received excess (20 to 59 per cent excess) rainfall.
Even then, a third of the districts in the country have received deficient (20 to 59 per cent deficit) or large deficient (60 per cent and above deficit) rainfall, which shows the skewed distribution of rainfall over the country.
The rest of the two months of the season may make this situation worse with the intensifying El Nino in tow.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.