Climate researchers explain meteorological challenges in region March-May 2024 at climate outlook forum
GHACOF 66 was held 20 – 21 February 2024 in Kampala, Uganda. Photo: Mekonnen Teshome The Greater Horn of Africa region will likely witness wetter than normal and long-term rainfall surplus as well as drier than normal weather conditions in the March-May 2024 season. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced the forecast at the 66th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 66) held earlier in February.
GHACOF 66 was held February 20-21, 2024 in Kampala, Uganda. The theme for the event was ‘Early Warning for Anticipatory Action’.
The institute analysed global climate model predictions from nine global producing centres, said ICPAC Program Coordinator (CLimSA) Zachary Atheru. The models showed that wetter than normal conditions are favoured over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa region. The March-May 2024 period will see up to 60 per cent of the total annual rainfall, he said in a media statement on February 21, 2024.
About 55-65 per cent of the region will see wetter than normal conditions. These include Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and north-western Tanzania, with highest probabilities in central to western Kenya and in cross-border areas spanning Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.
On the other hand, forecast probabilities favour drier than normal conditions over parts of eastern Tanzania, western Ethiopia, western Eritrea and localised areas in western South Sudan, he added.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average throughout the region, with increased probabilities indicated in the northern area, said Hussen Seid Endris, a climate modelling expert and a researcher of ICPAC. “Delayed onset is indicated over localised areas over central Kenya as well as parts of southern and north-western Ethiopia,” Hussen said.
Stefan Lines of the Met Office, United Kingdom, also gave an overview of the worldwide weather forecast at the Easter Africa forum, and underlined the atmospheric processes, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) can bring significantly enhanced rainfall on shorter (monthly) timescales.
“It can bring record breaking rainfall in seasons that are forecast to have even drier than normal conditions,” Stefan said. Therefore, it was critical to stay updated with the latest forecasts by ICPAC, which will track MJO.
Stefan pointed out that no two long rain seasons are the same; they will vary in rainfall total, intensity and location. Eastern Africa exhibits bimodal rainfall consisting of long rains (March–May) and short rains (October–December).
“For some seasons in East Africa (such as the northern monsoon in June to September and the short rains), the climate phenomena El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) play a large role in seasonal rainfall variability from year to year,” he further said.
The world is currently witnessing the warmer-than-usual phase of ENSO, called El Nino.
Long rains are traditionally difficult to forecast accurately on seasonal timescales, he said. However, ICPAC’s forecasting methodology goes beyond just ENSO and IOD and uses powerful seasonal forecasting models. Although it’s likely ENSO will persist into the Long Rains, it is unlikely to affect conditions, Dr. Stefan told a media outlet.
“Record breaking global temperatures were observed in 2023, and temperatures are likely to be similar or even exceed this in 2024,” he added. A combination of the El Nino and human-induced climate change are likely to be the cause.
In Ethiopia, Belg season, which runs from February to May, is highly variable with an erratic rainfall nature, said Asaminew Teshome, a weather forecast expert at the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. The season will see above-normal rainfall in 2024 and above-normal to slightly near-normal temperatures are also expected over most parts of the country, he said.
A report by the Ethiopian government, Impact Outlook of Belg 2024 on Sectoral Plan and Activities, also advised disaster preparedness activities as drought is expected in the northern part of the country during Belg.
Floods in southern and southeastern parts of the country, increased internally displaced persons, occurrence of pest and disease outbreaks, unexpected rainfall in some areas that disrupted harvesting and crop damage, favourable conditions for desert locusts in east Ethiopia, outbreaks of communicable diseases (malaria, cholera and dengue) and malnutrition are some of likely impacts, warned the report.
It recommended strengthening emergency preparedness and response plans that take seasonal forecasts into account, which aids in prioritisation and raising awareness in the health system, as well as promoting the effective implementation of interventions.
Moreover, enhancing surveillance in areas with a history of outbreaks of malaria and other climate-related diseases and timely deployment of health commodities in areas with geographical inaccessibility issues related to transportation, as well as monitoring and evaluating the co-design and co-production systems to maximise their benefits, would be vital, it added.
ICPAC Director Guleid Artan emphasised the importance of anticipatory action and timely emergency preparedness in saving the lives of citizens in the Greater Horn of Africa region and ensuring common prosperity.
He also called on all stakeholders to join hands in mainstreaming climate services to bring about sustainable development in the entire region.
According to the United Nations, El Nino-induced heavy rains and flooding (riverine and flash floods) heavily affected parts of the Eastern African region, including Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, leading to loss of lives, livelihoods, and displacement over the last couple of years.
Over 5.2 million people were affected by the heavy rains and flooding only between September and mid-December 2023, with nearly two million people displaced in Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Burundi, and Ethiopia.
ICPAC, a climate centre accredited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), provides climate services to 11 East African countries.
The GHACOF66 was convened by ICPAC in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of IGAD member states, WMO and other partners.
The objective of the forum was to document and share the climate impacts across the region and formulate responses to the regional climate outlook for the March to May 2024 rainfall season over Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda.
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