Fears that India's burgeoning population has become the "mother of all problems" may yet be belied. Vasant Gowariker, former scientific advisor to the Prime Minister, says his analysis of Indian population trends has convinced him that contrary to the assertions of some demographers, India will never overtake China and become the world's most populous nation. Population experts are also surprised by his prediction that the country's population growth rate would decrease from the current 2.14 per cent per annum to 1.42 per cent by 2000.
Gowariker's predictions are contained in The Inevitable Billion Plus, a book edited by him, and are based mainly on a drastic fall in the crude birth ratio (CBR). This measure of the number of live births per 1,000 population dropped from 41.2 in 1970 to 37.2 in 1980 and 29.9 in 1990. Gowariker estimates it will drop further to 21 by 2000.
Gowariker maintains that a dropping CBR in combination with the country's falling death rate, would bring the net reproduction ratio to the desired figure of 1, which would stabilise India's population. His analysis suggests "a very positive achievement by Indians of a scale so large, that all of us can be immensely proud of it". And to the doubting Thomases among demographers, he throws out a challenge, "Disprove me if you can."
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