More than half of hotspot countries facing a severe threat are in sub-Saharan Africa
Ethiopia, Niger, Somalia and South Sudan are the most at-risk countries. Photo: iStock The number of people residing in countries facing severe ecological threats will go up to 2.8 billion by 2050, according to a report by an international think tank, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). Presently, the number stands at 1.8 billion.
More than half of the hotspot countries facing a severe threat are in sub-Saharan Africa, found the IEP report, titled Ecological Threat Report 2023. It looked at global ecological threats and identified the countries and sub-national areas most vulnerable to conflict, civil unrest and displacement as a result of environmental degradation and climate-related events.
The report covered 221 countries and independent territories, which were divided into 3,594 sub-national areas, accounting for 99.99 percent of the world’s population. Of these countries and territories, 66 face at least one severe ecological threat.
The number of countries suffering from severe ecological threats and low societal resilience has risen by three to 30 in the last year. Ecological threats are also considerably higher in sub-Saharan Africa, the report further found.
Of the 30 hotspot countries that face severe ecological threats and have low levels of societal resilience, 19 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The most at risk countries are Ethiopia, Niger, Somalia and South Sudan, of which Ethiopia and Niger have recently emerged as hotspots.
Another new country to join the hotspots is Myanmar, the report found.
Europe and North America are the only two regions where no country currently faced a severe ecological threat, the document said.
The report focuses on four categories of threat: Food insecurity, natural disasters, demographic pressure and water risk.
There are currently 42 countries experiencing severe food insecurity, and nearly four billion people live in areas experiencing high or severe food insecurity, the majority of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa.
Water risk is one of the most significant ecological threats the world is currently facing. Two billion people globally live in areas that lack access to safe drinking water.
While water risk is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also increasing in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia and Eurasia.
A 25 per cent increase in food insecurity, as measured by the report, increases the risk of conflict by 36 per cent. Similarly, a 25 per cent increase in the number of people without access to clean drinking water and natural disasters increases the risk of conflict by 18 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
“As we approach the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Ecological Threat Report provides a timely reminder of the need for leaders to act, invest and build resilience for the future,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP.
Ecological threats increase the risk of conflict and result in forced migration. Building resilience to these threats will require substantial investment now and into the future, the report said.
The report included many policy recommendations aimed at supporting local communities to improve water capture, agricultural yields and resilience.
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