Over 50 million people may be food insecure in eastern Africa, warns WFP

Food insecurity in eastern Africa is rising swiftly, World Food Programme (WFP, the world’s largest humanitarian organisation, has warned. The number of people affected may be as high as 54 million, a new WFP analysis has suggested, with Sudan (17.7 million), Ethiopia (15.8 million people) and South Sudan (5.7 million were identified as the most concerning countries.

Sudan’s food assistance needs are rapidly increasing as fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) spreads into the southeast.

Ethiopia is one of the countries most vulnerable to climatic shocks, primarily drought and flooding, due to erratic rainfall patterns. The frequency and severity of these events are increasing, wreaking havoc on the lives and livelihoods of millions. Drought has returned to Tigray, Afar, Amhara, and parts of Oromia, Southern, and Southwest regions, causing severe suffering. 

By the end of February, nearly 600,000 South Sudanese returnees and refugees from Sudan, as well as 100,000 from Ethiopia, had arrived, exacerbating acute food insecurity in South Sudan’s northern and eastern counties.

Conflict, inflation, disease outbreaks and a lack of access to nutritious diets and safe water were identified as key factors influencing food security and nutrition in Eastern Africa by WFP.

Climate change has resulted in violent conflicts among smallholder farmers, which have contributed to food insecurity in East Africa.

According to the WFP, approximately 23.4 million people are internally or internationally displaced, including 5 million refugees and asylum seekers and 18.4 million internally displaced persons. Since the conflict began in Sudan, more than 6 million people have been internally displaced, with 1.7 million forced to flee across borders.

Sudan’s conflict continues to have ramifications for food security in the country and throughout Eastern Africa. 

The conflict has disrupted agricultural production, increased inflation and food prices and has had an impact on regional food security.

Food insecurity is expected to remain stable as we approach the second quarter of 2024, owing to the counterbalancing effects of improved weather conditions and the lean season, said the WFP. 

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, two consecutive wetter-than-normal seasons will allow the region to continue recovering from the effects of the drought that occurred from 2020-2023.

Positive effects on crop production are expected, which will increase market supply and lower food prices.

During the March-May period, the northern part of the region (Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea) will face dry weather conditions and elevated land surface temperatures, according to WFP. Heat stress, water and pasture deterioration, competition for available resources, and livestock mobility will all increase, resulting in deteriorating livestock body condition, reduced production and productivity, and livestock market value, all of which have an impact on food security. 

Climate shocks will be exacerbated in some of these countries by the effects of conflict, macroeconomics, and other underlying vulnerabilities.

The agency’s food security update recommended ongoing monitoring of the causes of food insecurity to provide timely early warning information for action.  

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