The system is likely to move with cyclonic storm intensity in the next six hours, IMD predicted at 6 pm
Photo: @ChennaiTraffic / X (formerly Twitter) The severe cyclonic storm Michaung, which made landfall after crossing south coastal Andhra Pradesh close to the south of Baptla on December 5, 2023, was a slow-moving system, leading to intense rainfall in Chennai and coastal Andhra Pradesh, according to experts.
“It is a slow-moving cyclone. We expected it to move further north. But it lingered over Chennai for a longer time,” Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology told Down To Earth (DTE).
The reason, he added, could be that the Bay of Bengal provided the necessary moisture and heat to help it develop and stay longer over a particular location.
Chennai city received 468 millimeters of rain in 48 hours leading to massive flooding, Vineet Kumar Singh, a researcher from Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea, wrote on X (formerly Twitter). This is slightly less than half of Chennai’s annual rainfall of 1,200 millimetres.
Coastal Andhra is expected to get 150-200mm on December 5. Between December 4 and 5, Baptla, Nellore, Rapur, Atmakur and Amalapuram received 22 cm, 22 cm, 21 cm, 19 cm, and 17 cm of rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
“Slow-moving cyclones are more destructive because they persist over an area for a longer time, resulting in high wind speeds and intense heavy rain for longer duration compared to a fast-moving cyclone,” Singh told DTE.
Coastal Andhra is expected to witness light to moderate rainfall in most places, with a few places receiving heavy to very heavy rainfall on December 5, according to IMD. The following day could bring isolated heavy rainfall over north coastal Andhra Pradesh.
As for Telangana, light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places, with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall on December 5. Heavy rainfall can be expected on December 6.
Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Rayalaseema and North Coastal Tamil Nadu are expected to see light to moderate rainfall in many places.
The system is likely to move with cyclonic storm intensity in the next six hours, IMD predicted at 6 pm.
Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading, noted that the system formed near the coast, which made it less intense. “It could have been more intense had it formed away from the coast,” he said
The cyclone has emerged as an El Niño, the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – has gained strength. “During El Nino, the potential of forming more cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is large compared to the Arabian Sea,” Koll said.
The December 2015 floods, too, were during an El Nino year. “Both current and the past flooding events seem comparable,” Deoras explained.
The 2015 event was not a tropical cyclone but it formed as a result of a depression. “The rainfall in the last 48 hours was more than what was recorded in 48 hours of December 2015,” Singh explained.
Also, the rainfall in Chennai this time was more widespread than December 2015, he added.
We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.
.png)
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.