For India, the major impact is expected on the ongoing monsoon season
El Nino events in the past have led to severe droughts in various parts of the world. Photo: iStock The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) July 4, 2023 declared the onset of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The world should watch out for extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts along with rise in global atmospheric and oceanic average temperatures.
El Nino is the warmer-than-normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, during which the sea surface temperatures (SST) in a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as Nino 3.4 become warmer than the average by 0.5 degree Celsius or more.
This temperature value is also known as Ocean Nino Index (ONI) and was at 0.9°C around the middle of June, according to WMO.
The United Nations organisation on weather and climate also said that the changes in the oceanic conditions in the last few months leading up to the El Nino have been rapid with the ONI, going from -0.44°C in February 2023 to +0.47°C in May 2023 and to 0.9°C by mid June.
Some uncertainty regarding the El Nino still remains, said WMO, as the impacts on the atmosphere because of the oceanic warming are still not well established, which is essential for the sustenance of the El Niño.
“It is anticipated that it will take approximately another month or so to witness a fully established coupling in the tropical Pacific,” said WMO in a media statement.
The El Nino would lead to a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns, it added.
El Nino events in the past have generally led to severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, including India, Central America and northern South America.
They are also linked to increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, southern United States, Horn of Africa and central Asia. El Nino could also fuel more hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
But the current El Nino is occurring at a time when average temperatures are already heightened because of global warming due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activities.
In May, WMO had released a report saying that there was a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years would be the warmest ever, beating the record set in 2016, when a combined impact of global warming and El Niño was also witnessed.
There is also a 66 percent chance of the global annual average temperature crossing the 1.5°C mark temporarily, according to WMO. Most of the severe impacts in terms of increased temperatures, heat waves and droughts connected to El Nino will be experienced in 2024, when the weather event is likely to be at its peak.
“This is not to say that in the next five years we would exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement, because that agreement refers to long-term warming over many years”, said Chris Hewitt, director of climate service at WMO.
“However, it is yet another wake up call, or an early warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change,” he added.
“The declaration of an El Nino by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary general, WMO.
“Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods,” he added.
For India, the major impact is expected on the ongoing monsoon season. Many of the El Nino years have led to droughts and decreased monsoon rainfall all over India.
The year 2015 was a developing El Nino year, similar to 2023, and there was a 14 per cent deficit in monsoon rainfall, leading to a drought year for the country.
On June 30, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said the three-month average ONI at the end of June was 0.47°C and was predicted to go up to 0.81°C by end of July, hence establishing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD forecast normal rainfall in July for the country overall. But in its probabilistic rainfall distribution map, the weather agency predicted that large parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, Punjab, Ladakh, southern Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will witness below-normal rainfall.
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