Y2K, and all that

EVEN as us astronauts and a few millionaires are hoping to celebrate the end of the millennium on the Moon, thousands of software professionals are struggling to keep computers worldwide from getting moonstruck on January 1, 2000. And though India woke up late to the problem of the 'millennial glitch', most large organisations -- in the public sector as well as the private sector--seem to be on course to deal with it.

Y2K, as the millennium bug is known, is some computers' inability to differentiate between the years 1900 and 2000. The two digits denoting year in the date field of these computers (dd/mm/yy) is the same for both these years: "00." That may mean chaos. Bank accounts may go invalid, products expire and flight charts will show "no service". It is quite obvious to the computer: you did not have a bank account in 1900. Hundreds of such worst case scenarios are projected on the Internet and computer literature worldwide.

So, what is this Y2K bug and how did it come into being? Firstly, it is called Y2K due to the computer industry's penchant for acronyms. Y is for year, and 2K stands for two kilos, or 2000. Hence the year 2000 bug gets the name Y2K. As to how it came to be, the problem dates back to the 1960s and the 1970s, when the computer industry was in a nascent stage and data storage took up a lot of space, time and money. Data was stored as punched out rectangular holes on cards. The first software writers were trying to save on the severely limited memory of early computers by representing years in two digits. They never thought the early versions would survive very long. But as the computer software industry developed, new software was added on to the old. The software packages developed for the early computers are still used in today's much more efficient machines that are equipped with magnetic data storage disks. Mansions came up on the same, Y2K-bugged foundations.

This has meant that the Y2K bug is deeply entangled through the millions of computers and computer systems in the world. And the cost to "fix" the bug is estimated to be astronomical. According to Caper Jones, a us software research firm, the global impact of the cyber chaos would be to the tune of us $1,510 billion. This figure includes, among other things, finding and fixing the bug in software applications, upgrading hardware with built-in calendars, and litigation charges that may arise when customers sue for damages. In India, software repairs may cost us $100 million, according to Caper Jones.

The Indian government gave special attention to the fixing of the Y2K bug in the Union Budget of 1999-2000. It is argued in the industry that India does not need to worry as much as the industrialised countries when it comes to Y2K as computerisation set in quite late in the country. This very complacency is the cause for worry. Industrialised countries, being so dependant on computer systems, woke up very early to the Y2K menace. But India was late in reacting to the challenge. According to reports in the media, N Sheshagiri, director of National Informatics Centre, said that it is better to be an alarmist, else people do not wake up.

In India, we are sitting on a time bomb that can not only devastate the nation at a time of economic transition but also throw key sectors like banking, industry and infrastructure into chaos," said K B Dadiseth, chairperson of Hindustan Lever Ltd (hll), a leading consumer products company. hll has reportedly spent Rs 60 crore on fixing the Y2K bug in its computer systems.

But there are more optimists than prophets of doom in the industry. "Most large conglomerates in India, both in the private and the public sector, have taken steps to make their computer systems Y2K-free. June 30 is the deadline for repairing computer systems and most large corporations -- almost 90 per cent of them -- are on course to meet it," said Anupam Adeeb, who is territory manager with Wipro Infotech Group in Delhi. Adeeb, who has been dealing with several major customers that come to Wipro for fixing the Y2K bug, pointed out that it is not correct to say that industry was unaware of the bug.

There has been a lot of worry about the financial markets in India not being geared up to deal with the millennium bug. "All stock exchanges in India and their members would be Y2K compliant by the June 30 deadline," said Sanjay Kaul, a director on the board of Delhi Stock Exchange.

Industry majors had started gearing up quite early. It is the media in India that woke up late to the Y2K problem. Consequently, the smaller players in the industry were not informed as early as they should have been, and hence may not have understood the criticality of the problem. Yet the hype about the Y2K bug in the media has paid off. People are aware of the problem and are getting it fixed," Adeeb pointed out.

Amid these messages of hope, it is difficult to believe the prophesies of doomsayers. But not before January 1, 2000, will the result be known. The turn of the millennium brings as much hope as trepidation.

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