The devastating rains are a result of a combination of factors, including the country’s seasonal weather patterns, climate change and natural weather phenomena
A blockage in an underpass/tunnel that channels water to the Tongi river led to a dam bursting in Kenya’s Nakuru County on April 29, 2024 unleashing a torrent of water that surged down the hillside, engulfing everything in its wake.
At least 48 people were killed in the flash flood after water blew through the blocked river tunnel under a railway line. Tourist accommodation facilities were also submerged when the river within the Maasai Mara overflowed its banks.
Floods and landslides across Kenya have killed 181 people since March, with hundreds of thousands forced to leave their homes.
Kenya and some other parts of eastern Africa have two main rainfall periods: the “long rains” season of March to May, and the “short rains” season of October to December. Most of the country’s average annual rainfall occurs during the ‘long rains’ season.
March marked the beginning of the ‘long rainy’ season this year with deadly and destructive flash floods in April. Torrential rain and floods have destroyed and caused damage to homes, livestock, roads, bridges and other infrastructure across the region and displaced more than 190,000 people. The death toll in Kenya has exceeded that of floods triggered by the El Nino weather phenomenon late last year.
The devastating rains are a result of a combination of factors, including the country’s seasonal weather patterns, climate change and natural weather phenomena. Kenya’s rainfall pattern and frequency are also influenced by naturally occurring climate systems like the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The IOD — often called the “Indian Nino” because of its similarity to its Pacific equivalent — refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, the waters in the western Indian Ocean are much warmer than normal and this can bring heavier rain regardless of El Nino. However, when both a positive IOD and an El Nino occur at the same time, as was the case last year, the rains in East Africa can become extreme.
It’s become difficult to predict long-term weather in Kenya in recent years, as the onset and duration of dry and wet seasons increasingly change.
The Kenya Meteorological Department expects the “long rains” season to continue into June. People living in flood-prone areas have been urged by the government to evacuate or be moved forcefully as water levels in two hydroelectric dams have risen to a “historic high”.
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