Food transitions in age of climate crisis should focus on diversifying options

Despite increased food production aided by technology, global hunger persists, affecting 828 million in 2021 — up by 150 million since 2019.

Rising temperatures threaten crop yields. This crisis is expected to increase with a projected 1.5°C rise in temperatures by 2050. A 52 per cent increase in food production is needed by 2050 to meet the requirements of the projected population of 9.9 billion.

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 of achieving zero hunger by 2030 is challenged by the interplay of the dynamics of food production, distribution and consumption at the local, national and global levels. The presence of food in the political agenda reflects its integration into development challenges throughout the historical transitions from food gatherers to agriculturists that witnessed diverse food regimes (food regime approach views agriculture and food in relation to the development of global capitalism).

Food regimes explored shifts in power dynamics, from nation-states to global markets and the dominance of neoliberalism. The first regime (1870-1914) involved colonialism, markets and British hegemony, while the post-war regime (1947-1973) was centred on nation-states, market interventions and the dominance of the United States.

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The corporate food regime (1980s-present) led to the emergence of neoliberalism, agro-food corporations and food sovereignty. Further, the United Nations-mandated SDGs drive current policies toward eradicating hunger and achieving sustainable agriculture. Against this backdrop, addressing the impact of climate-related environmental changes on agriculture and future food is crucial.

The changing food scenario highlights a shift in the food crisis from production to control and access, leading to the concept of food sovereignty. A comparison of food scenarios among the leading countries is shown in the graph below.

A graph showing the global food scenario in terms of the difference in the actual and potential number of people fed.

A comparative analysis of climate change’s impact on food scenarios remains defined by crop species and ecosystems that are threatened for survival.

Further, an impending ice age poses a catastrophic risk to plant species, including food crops, which can potentially disrupt the entire food chain. Human activities related to commercial farming have led to a 30 per cent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the past 150 years.

This has endangered plant habitats and reduced plant diversity. Despite efforts like afforestation, carbon dioxide absorption capacity falls short of targets. Escalating atmospheric temperatures, with a projected rise of up to 3.2°C by the century’s end, would further exacerbate the crisis.

The hottest decade (2011-2020) and health implications, such as increased deaths due to climate change and rising air pollution-related asthma, underscore the urgency. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C requires a 50 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

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The feasibility of meeting this target amid current fossil fuel usage and lifestyles remains bleak. It raises questions about a potential future with unequal access to essential resources like air, water and food.

In fact, the history of food production is the history of human-led agriculture that spans around 10,000 years and accounts for just five per cent of mankind’s period of existence. Previously, humans were hunters and gatherers.

The realisation that grains could satisfy hunger prompted the cultivation of diverse grains like rice, wheat, barley and sorghum across regions. Farming traces back to 9000 BC with rice in East Asia, followed by barley, wheat, sorghum and maize across continents.

Limited dispersal of seeds by natural means established primary and secondary crop centres, promoting diversity. While historical liberty allowed choosing food and cultivation, shifting nature’s laws may curtail this freedom.

Changing ecosystems due to polar rainfall and desert conditions, rising sea levels and disappearing vegetation raise concerns. Tree crops like tea, coffee and rubber could grow in unexpected places. Considering these trends, seeds stored in refrigerated gene banks may hold solutions as nature changes, reminiscent of Noah’s Ark during mythical floods.

The scientific study of food crops started with Linnaeus in the 16th century. Alphonse de Candoli highlighted key crop origins in Southwest Asia, the Americas and China. Vavlov’s expeditions (1916-1934) identified primary centres of origin based on gene spread and selection.

Crops are spread from primary to secondary centres, where most diversity is found. Vavlov proposed eight primary centres in the Old World, which was further extended to 12 mega gene centres by Zhukovsky.

Crops such as rice, coconut, banana, lemon, eggplant, ash gourd, bitter gourd, ridge gourd and moringa originated from the Indian subcontinent. At the same time, potato, tomato, onion, cabbage, wheat, apple and grapes are all foreign-origin crops. Tapioca and moringa, as introduced crops in Kerala and Cuba, respectively, emphasise the importance of all crops as common heritage property of humankind.

Watch video: Climate change is affecting the seeds that India depends on

Challenges to food production under the new climate regime include disruptions in growth and fertility, impacting plant reproduction. Male sterility, changing plant growth behaviour and parthenocarpy have become common concerns, challenging the traditional relationship between fruit and seed production. 

Many plants have become seedless and depend on vegetative propagation, altering their reproductive patterns and threatening pollinators. Vegetative propagation techniques have been used to overcome male sterility in plants like onion. Developed countries adopt protected cultivation to combat extreme weather, but it’s not feasible for all crops and nations. 

Regional concentrations of food production create food islands and distribution pathways, as depicted in the figure below.

A graph showing the regional concentration of food production across the globe. Source: FAO.

Regional concentrations indicate how local resources and climate shape regional food patterns. It also highlights the influence of factors such as population growth, climate change and inequality on future food choices.

Moreover, it depicts the persistent disparities in access to nutritious food, with wealth influencing dietary habits. The palaeolithic diet is poised to gain popularity for preventing lifestyle diseases and is attributed to evolutionary changes in humans’ digestive systems.

Future food decisions must be based on energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact. The carbon footprint of popular food meat sources like pork affects carbon neutrality goals. Moreover, climate-related discussions often focus on methane emissions from agriculture while overlooking other major sources, such as vehicles and industries.

Thus, the emerging trends in future food sources and their significance in the face of climate change emphasise the need to diversify food options beyond traditional crops to ensure food security. All these have given rise to a quest for new food sources.

Legumes, such as the morama bean, jack bean, sword bean and winged bean, are identified as resilient options. Fonio and millets are noted for their nutritional value and adaptability. Insects and lab-grown meat are proposed as alternative protein sources with potential environmental benefits.

The importance of including a variety of foods is underlined. Marine microplants are also suggested as a future food source and carbon mitigation tool. The potential consequences of a meat-heavy diet need to be addressed through global cooperation to combat food challenges and climate change.

Therefore, the political nature of the interconnections between food changes and development requires shifts in evaluation parameters. This involves redefining food production metrics, such as agricultural yields, to nourishing people per hectare and highlighting the relevance of food delivery per hectare regardless of consumption location.

Also, the right to define one’s own food, protect domestic agriculture and promote sustainable development should remain central, as described by the Nyeleni Declaration on food sovereignty. It emphasised people’s rights over domestic production, trade and self-reliance on food. It views power as relational, advocating pluralistic approaches to decision-making for combating hunger and malnutrition.

Views expressed are the authors’ own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth.

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