Most forecasts indicate El Nino, which may enhance the flood-drought cycle already being witnessed, says WMO official
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not declared the development of an El Nino event, but it has been anticipating its occurrence, which could be crucial for the current monsoon season. Photo: iStock India may see decreased rainfall conditions due to the likely occurrence of an El Nino event this year, according to the United Nations’ atmospheric science agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The warming effect of the phenomenon will likely add to the heating effect due to the emissions of greenhouse gases and witnessing erratic rainfall pattern.
Indian farmers should not wait for the declaration of an El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and should take steps to adapt to the possibility, according to a WMO official.
El Nino is the warming phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon during which the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer by 0.5 degrees Celsius or more in a particular region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as the Nino 3.4 region.
Also read: Chasing the monsoon 2023: India to have below-average rainfall, analysis suggests
“In the case of India, it is not important whether the El Nino has been declared or not. If the forecasts indicate that an El Nino is about to happen during the season, then the farmers should prepare for the consequences,” Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of the regional climate prediction division, Climate Services Branch of WMO, told Down To Earth.
Moufouma-Okia is responsible for generating the WMO’s ENSO bulletin based on consensus from various WMO regional centres that track the climatic phenomenon. The agency will come out with its ENSO bulletin early in July after taking into account the analysis from all its regional centres.
Most forecasts indicate an El Nino during the season, which may enhance the flood-drought cycle that is already being witnessed in the country, he said.
On the other hand, there are changes in the ENSO phenomenon itself because of climate change. “Scientists have observed an expansion of the regions in which the ENSO phenomenon has its impacts and also an increase in humidity levels; hence, the intensification of rains due to global warming,” he explained.
The El Nino warming will be in addition to the heating effect due to greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
There were three years of La Nina, which provided a cooling effect, temporarily slowing down the warming engine of the planet. Even then, we saw high temperatures and heatwaves all around the world in the past few years.
“Looking at the last three decades or so, we realise that the La Nina events are becoming warmer than in the past. So if we are expecting the event to slow down the global temperature rise, that is not going to happen much anymore”, said Moufouma-Okia.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not declared the development of an El Nino event, but it has been anticipating its occurrence, which could be crucial for the current monsoon season.
In an El Nino year, the monsoon season is generally shorter and weaker than normal. Many El Nino years have resulted in droughts for the country.
This is when the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already declared an El Nino on June 8, 2023 with a 56 per cent chance of a strong event at its peak. There is an 84 per cent chance that it would be a moderate El Ninjo event.
Also read: Understanding climate patterns: What are El Nino and La Nina?
El Ninos are only declared by NOAA when it forecasts that the warming would stick around for the next several months and seasons and there are related changes in the atmosphere such as the increase in rainfall over central Pacific Ocean and decrease in rainfall over Indonesia.
Between 0.5°C and 0.9°C, the event is categorised as a weak event. Between 1 and 1.4°C, it becomes a moderate event and strong event between 1.5 and 1.9°C. When the sea surface temperatures go above 2°C, a very strong event is declared.
The monsoon system and the rains over India have picked up pace with considerable intensity since June 25 in most parts of India. Just before that, the monsoon had been sluggish, which had resulted in heatwaves in most parts of central and eastern India.
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