The Arabian Sea is currently witnessing Cyclone Biporjoy having witnessed cyclones Vayu, Nisarga and Tauktae in the past few years
A map of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from iStock The Arabian Sea, which was not particularly known for its cyclones in the past, is now transforming. But the marginal sea of the Indian Ocean was certainly not a pacific one, being witness to fierce storms, historians have told Down To Earth.
The Arabian Sea is witnessing Cyclone Biporjoy. The fourth-strongest cyclone that occurred in June in the Sea, is expected to make landfall around June 14. It follows Cyclone Vayu (2019), Cyclone Nisarga (2020) and Cyclone Tauktae (2021), all of which occurred off the west coast of India.
“It is certainly my understanding that severe storms have historically been infrequent in the Arabian Sea compared with the Bay of Bengal. This was confirmed by the work of tropical meteorologists such as those at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and also the work of Adam Sobel, whom Amitav Ghosh cites,” Sunil Amrith, Renu and Anand Dhawan Professor of History and Chair, South Asian Studies Council, Yale University, United States, told Down To Earth (DTE).
“I have never done a systematic study, but impressionistically it is certainly true that premodern and early modern accounts of cyclones are almost all from the Bay of Bengal,” Amrith, the author of Unruly Waters: How Rains, Rivers, Coasts and Seas Have Shaped Asia's History (2018), added.
One simple indicator, he noted, was to see how many fewer shipwrecks there are in the Arabian Sea compared with the Bay of Bengal.
“That said, there is mention of storms in some of the classic Arab navigation treatises like those of (Arab navigator) Ibn Majid,” Amrith said.
However, that does not mean that the Arabian Sea, though calmer than the Bay of Bengal, was a ‘pacific sea’.
William Dalrymple, noted historian, told DTE that shipwrecks due to storms are a huge part of naval literature from the Buddhist Jatakas onwards.
Anirudh Kanisetti, public historian, agreed. “A lot of Buddhist Jatakas, when discussing trade, mention shipwrecking frequently. A lot of Jatakas are concerned with trade to Suvarnadwipa or southeast Asia. So of course, it is the Bay of Bengal they are referring to,” he said.
But there is also some indication that the Arabian Sea was only slightly safer. For instance, Kanisetti said, a lot of caves in the western Deccan were where Avalokiteshwara, the Buddhist Bodhisattva, was worshipped, especially by merchants and sailors because he was believed to protect them from shipwrecks.
“As far as I am aware, the concern was not necessarily with cyclones but with storms and with the way the monsoon flowed. The Periplus of the Erythraean Sea and a lot of Arabic accounts are also very careful about the windows for appropriate travel in the Arabian Sea because at some points the monsoon blows faster and sometimes slower,” he added.
This was a time when travel was possible only if one could catch the right winds. Otherwise, one could be stranded in port with their goods.
“It was also a time when ships were more delicate than they are now. So obviously sailors would be concerned about any adverse weather activity in the Arabian Sea and not just necessarily cyclones,” according to Kanisetti.
He pointed to the Medieval Warm Period which began in the ninth century and continued till the 12 century or so. That is when the Indian Ocean was a bit warmer resulting in drier summers and more sustained monsoons. But it was not anywhere near the scale of the global warming being witnessed today, he added.
“That led to an increase in commercial activity across the Indian Ocean by Fatimid Egypt, the Cholas in India and the Song Dynasty in China, on the other side of the ocean. The Songs exchanged embassies with the Cholas,” Kanisetti said.
He added that it is not possible to know whether people in the ancient and medieval world could have distinguished between cyclones and really massive storms.
Today, meteorologists can use satellite imagery to see and observe how cyclones are created.
“But people then could have perceived much faster winds blowing at a tremendous speed and so on. But whether they could have distinguished between a cyclone and a regular storm, one does not know,” he noted.
Kanisetti pointed out that historical literary sources would not help answer this question, but climatic studies might.
“But to the extent that I am aware, I don’t think the Medieval Warm Period led to cyclones in the Arabian Sea. If anything, it led to longer monsoons that allowed for more sustained trade,” he concluded.
The once-calm Arabian Sea is now becoming the site of more frequent cyclones, courtesy global warming.
A study published in the journal Science Advances in April last year estimated a slight increase in probabilities of intense tropical cyclones near, for instance, Mumbai and Muscat, the authors told DTE.
The year before, a 2021 study had noted a 52 per cent increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms on the west coast of India.
Another study in October last year by researchers from the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research in Bhopal showed that the Arabian Sea had registered an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the last two decades. They attributed this trend to global warming.
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