Human casualty is an important indicator of loss and damage due to heatwaves — a significant climate-related extreme weather event
Over the past few months, a growing number of heat-related fatalities have been reported as unrelenting heatwaves kept large swathes of India simmering.
Various government agencies such as National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Union health ministry keep records on the casualties from sweltering heatwaves. However, a closer look at the official data from 2015-2023, presented by the health ministry, unravels discrepancies between the information provided by various agencies.
For instance, data given by the health ministry to the Lok Sabha on July 23, 2023 stated that at least 264 people have died across 14 states due to heatwaves this year as of June 30, 2023.
Of this, 120 deaths — the highest human causality in the state due to heatwaves since 2015 — or close to 45 per cent, were reported from Kerala, Satya Pal Singh Baghel, the minister of state in the ministry of health and family welfare, told the House.
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Additionally, in Gujarat, too, 35 people died due to heatwaves this year (the highest since 2015), he added.
The figures for Kerala and Gujarat given by the minister together account for 59 per cent of total deaths in the country due to heatwaves (264). The “heat-related mortality figures”, however, contradicts the data from NCRB, the IMD as well as the media reports for the period 2015-2023.
*NA: Not available | **NA: IMD started providing segregated data on heatwave deaths only since 2022.
In 2023, no heatwave death was reported in Kerala, officials from the state disaster management authority told media. The health ministry also said of not having reported any such casualty except in 2019.
However, NCRB data said heat-related deaths were recorded in the states in at least five years — 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. Three people died in Kerala due to heat stroke in 2019; four in 2016 and at least one each in 2015, 2017 and 2018, it added.
While the most recent health ministry data showed that 17 people died in Gujarat due to heatwaves in 2015, 52 deaths were attributed to heat stroke by NCRB for the same year. Moreover, the estimates for 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 provided by the health ministry differ from those of the NCRB by a wide margin.
According to the health ministry, 12 people died from heatwaves in Uttar Pradesh through June 30, 2023. This seems to be an underestimate if we consider media reports that recorded around 150 deaths in Balia and Deoria districts in the state.
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Dayashankar Singh, Uttar Pradesh transport minister, had said he suspects heatwaves to be the reason behind increasing deaths in Balia district during June 14-21, 2023.
The death toll in Bihar given by the Union health ministry (eight), too, appears to be an under-estimate as at least 50 people died in the Bhojpur district due to a heatwave, according to media reports.
However, the state authorities did not agree with this and said there is not enough evidence to prove heatwave deaths in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
In fact, the media reports, along with data from disaster management authorities, are the basis of state-wise data on “human deaths due to extreme weather events” provided by the IMD in its Annual Statement on Climate of India.
“The causalities of these extreme events mentioned here are based on the media and the government reports from disaster Management Authorities,” IMD had said in the Statement on Climate of India, 2022.
For Uttar Pradesh, too, the figures provided by the Union health ministry differ from those of the NCRB by an extensive margin. For example, 176 people died in Uttar Pradesh due to heat stroke in 2018, according to NCRB. But the health ministry’s data for the same year said no one died due to heat in the state.
NCRB and IMD provide data on deaths due to extreme weather events, including heatwaves in India, in their reports Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India and Annual State of Climate.
IMD used to provide figures on casualties due to extreme weather events (including heatwaves) every month in its monthly climate bulletin as well. However, the segregated state-level and event-specific data on deaths are not being provided since April 2023.
In June, the country’s mean temperature was the seventh highest since 1901. Globally, 2023 saw the hottest June on record, according to NASA’s global temperature analysis.
Considering these contexts, human casualty is an important indicator of loss and damage due to heatwaves — a significant climate-related extreme weather event. “Deaths due to extreme events” is an important indicator under the sustainable development goal on climate action (SDG 13) as well. It should also be monitored, quantified and reported by India under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).
At a time when heatwave has been surpassing records in India, data veracity, along with data gaps on “mortality due to heatwave”, needs to be addressed.
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