How India’s dairy sector came to a halt during the lockdown

India, which has been the world’s largest milk producer for over a century, has been struggling with runaway milk prices recently. From May-July there were also reports of shortage of some milk items like butter and cheese. According to the Department of Consumer Affairs, the average retail price of milk has increased by almost 19 per cent in the past two years. A litre of milk now costs Rs 58.41 as against Rs 49.18 in 2021.

The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development stated that this price rise is due to the sharp decline in milk production growth from 5.8 per cent to 0.4 per cent in 2022-23. In fact, since 2022-23 milk prices have been a driving force behind overall food inflation of the country.

A press conference held by then secretary of Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying said there were two reasons for the stagnant supply: One, infectious lumpy disease which has affected 3.2 million cattles and buffaloes across the country and has killed over 0.2 million animals; two, a rebound in consumer demand following the COVID-19 pandemic. But an analysis done by Down To Earth in August 2023 showed a third reason: A stagnation in the number of high yield dairy cattle and buffaloes between 2020-22. During the past two years, due to lockdown and restrictions on movement, the country has likely missed 16.84 million artificial inseminations.

Artificial insemination is a vital technology used to accelerate genetic improvement of breeds that have low productivity. In this technology, semen is collected from a bull which has proven superior genetics and introduced to the reproductive tract of female cattle. In India, 30 per cent of cattle breeding is done through artificial insemination, which has a significant contribution to improve milk production. According to the Basic Animal Husbandry & Fisheries Statistics-2014 report, as many as 50 million artificial inseminations were conducted across the country in 2010-11.

Over the next 10 years, the technology reached more than 80 million inseminations, just before COVID-19 hit the country. This means a growth rate of 5.4 per cent a year on average. A back-of-the-envelope calculation showed that at this rate, 173.88 million artificial inseminations should have been done between 2020 and 2022. Instead, the country conducted only 157.04 million artificial inseminations. Now this is a gap of 16.84 million.

A similar analysis on how COVID-19 had an impact on artificial insemination of cattle and buffalo in the country has also been done by two researchers with the National Dairy Research Institute in 11 states. They found that the duration of the lockdown coincided with the favourable breeding season of bovines in India and how semen stations ran out of stock of frozen semen due to breakdown of the supply chain. Dairy farmers failed to get their animals inseminated at the correct time either due to shortage of frozen semen or due to unavailability of artificial insemination technicians.

The researchers agree that any milk loss because of missing artificial insemination would have dealt a severe blow to the country’s milk production already under strain because of the lumpy skin disease, disrupted milk demand during COVID-19 lockdowns, and a spiralling fodder inflation.

To get a more detailed analysis on this topic, read the cover story: 17 million missing: A DTE analysis sheds light on why India was dealing with milk inflation

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