In recent times, women-based welfare schemes have played a major role in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh polls
People queue up to vote for West Bengal Assembly Election 2021. Photo: iStock As India gears up for the highly anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all eyes are turning towards a significant demographic that is poised to play a crucial role in shaping the country’s political landscape: Women. With women expected to constitute nearly half of the total voters in this election cycle, their influence and participation have never been more crucial.
The Election Commission (EC) released the schedule for parliamentary polls to elect the 18th Lok Sabha on March 16, 2024.
A report released by State Bank of India on December 14, 2023 had found that the percentage of women voters is on the rise, potentially reaching nearly half (49 per cent) of the total electorate by 2024. This trend is expected to continue, with women voters significantly outnumbering men in elections beyond 2029.
By 2047, estimates suggest a potential voter split of 55 per cent women to 45 per cent men, the SBI report suggested.
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SBI projections definitely hit on the nose: At present, of the 968.8 million registered voters with the EC, 471.5 million are women (48.66 per cent) and 497.2 million (51.32 per cent) are men. In the last five years, the elector gender ratio has risen fast, from 928 women voters per thousand male voters in 2019 to 948 in 2024.
This indicates a significant shift, with 40 million women voters being added to the registered voter list over this period, compared to 32 million men.
The increasing involvement of women in India’s political landscape stands out as one of the most notable narratives of the past decade. Female voters are now exerting a significantly greater influence in elections than in previous years.
In the 2019 General Lok Sabha elections, the turnout of female voters surpassed that of males, marking a departure from trends observed since 1991, when the gap between the genders exceeded 10 per cent, the SBI report pointed out.
In 2014, voter turnout surged by 137 million to 550 million, with women comprising 260 million, a 5.5 times increase from the average turnout between 1962 and 2009. By 2019, the turnout reached 620 million, with 300 million being women, the SBI report said.
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Over the four elections spanning from 1996 to 2004, this gap remained relatively steady at approximately 8.4 per cent on average.
The trend of rising female voter turnout is even more striking in state assembly elections. Among the 23 major states where state assembly elections occurred in the last five years, data reveals that women’s turnout surpassed that of men in 18 states.
Notably, in 10 of these 18 states where women’s turnout exceeded that of men, the incumbent government was reelected, the SBI report highlighted.
The impact of welfare schemes or incentives specifically aimed at women on election outcomes has been evident in recent state assembly polls. For instance, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Ladli Behna scheme played a significant role in the party’s success in the Madhya Pradesh elections last year.
On the other hand, in the Karnataka elections, initiatives such as cash handouts to female heads of households and free bus rides for women were instrumental in tilting the balance in favour of Indian National Congress party.
In the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP aims to secure a third consecutive term and has implemented measures such as reducing LPG prices and emphasising its contribution to passing the Women’s Reservation Bill.
Read more: Not BJP, not Congress: Women voters are real winners today
Although the interim Union budget announced in February lacked major announcements, the government raised the target for women beneficiaries under its Lakhpati Didi Scheme from 20 million to 30 million. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharam also revealed plans for free cervical cancer vaccinations for girls aged 9-14 years.
In 2047, the SBI has projected around 1,150 million people would be registered electors, with a nearly equal proportion of men and women. The voter turnout is anticipated to be at 80 per cent, with approximately 920 million participants.
Notably, women are expected to outnumber men in electoral participation, with 506 million women and 414 million men, signifying a seismic shift in India’s electoral landscape.
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