Climate change responsible for over 80% of temperature rise within Asia last month, the hottest April ever: WWA

A global study, released early morning Indian time on May 15, has confirmed that climate change had contributed substantially to the record-shattering heat surge recorded in April across Asia, including India.

April 2024 was the hottest April on record globally, as well as within several south Asian countries. It was the eleventh consecutive month in a row that a hottest month record was broken, the report confirmed.

The study, a rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading 13 climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, shows that global warming caused by climate change and El Nino phenomenon worked in tango to push the temperature soaring to record proportions and heatwaves happening almost throughout the month in Asia, including India, during April 2024.

El Nino is a global weather condition linked to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“Overall, climate change made this year’s heatwave 1°C hotter, while El Nino made the heatwave a further 0.2°C hotter ... in South Asia, similar 30-day heatwaves (as found in 2024) can be expected to occur about once every 30 years. However, they have already become about 45 times more likely ... due to climate change, according to historical weather data,” read the document, a copy of which is with this reporter. Clearly, the study suggests, climate change was the elephant in the room, being responsible for fifth-sixth of the temperature rise.

Millions suffered

“In today’s climate, with 1.2°C of warming, similar heatwaves are expected to occur about once every 10 years,” said the study, pointing out that climate change made heatwaves about five times more likely and 1.7°C hotter.  

The researchers pointed out that south Asia’s trend was like the previous two years when the attributional study clearly established a link between climatic changes and rising Celsius.  

“Extreme temperatures above 40°C that impacted billions of people across Asia in April were made hotter and more likely by human-caused climate change,” stated the study, highlighting how heatwaves intensified by climate change are making life much tougher for people living in poverty across Asia and the 1.7 million displaced Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

“The heatwave exacerbated already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and those in refugee camps and conflict zones across West Asia. In Gaza, extreme heat worsened the living conditions of 1.7 million displaced people,” read the report. Major parts of south Asia, including India, suffered as well.

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“In the 2023 study, the maximum 4-day temperature in April 2023 was found to be 40 times more likely and 0.6°C more intense due to climate change in the India-Bangladesh region,” reminded the document.

“We find that the 2024 April mean temperature over South Asia is a 1-in-30 year event in the current climate ...  The synthesis of the observations reveals a strong climate change signal,” pointed out the analysis.  

Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Science at Grantham Institute — Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said: “From Gaza to Delhi to Manila, people suffered and died when April temperatures soared in Asia. Heatwaves have always happened, but the additional heat, driven by emissions from oil, gas and coal, is resulting in death for many people”. 

Shattering records

East and Northeast India has warmed up most, especially with regard to average and minimum temperature, compared to other parts of India, and reached record proportions during last April, a senior scientist of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told this reporter recently.   

“In east and Northeast India, the April 2024 average for minimum temperature was 22.19°C, and that for mean temperature was 28.12°C; both being temperature toppers since 1901, the time since when IMD kept regular records. Comparative analysis shows that the eastern and Northeastern region warmed most compared to normal values; followed by the southern Indian states,” O P Sreejith, head of climate monitoring and prediction at IMD Pune told this reporter, adding that the average maximum temperature during last April was 34.05°C; overall 9th in the last 124 years.

IMD records say that while last April’s minimum temperature was 1.78°C above the normal in the east-Northeast region, the mean temperature was higher by 2.01°C and maximum temperature by 2.25°C. A comparison within different parts of the country shows that the rise in east and Northeast India was more than 60 per cent higher, compared to the rise recorded in south peninsular India, the second most-affected region.

Scientists pointed out that global warming, coupled with the El Nino phenomenon, contributed to the record temperature rise in the region like the rest of the world. 

“Climate change is consistently pushing up the mercury globally, while El Nino, in its fourth and last year of the current cycle, is adding up to the warm quotient. For the hot days in April-end, the maximum temperature in several places of the east and Northeast region, recorded 40°C and above; and the night temperatures also did not slide, as no cool air was available in the system. That, in turn, has also pushed up the mean temperature,” explained KJ Ramesh, former IMD director-general.  

A scientist in the Indian Institute of Science pointed out that minimum temperatures have been showing more pronounced changes across India, compared to the maximum, over a duration; a proof of long-term climatic impact on temperature.

“El Nino, with its tendency to disrupt weather patterns worldwide, might well have contributed to the region’s heatwave. However, it should not be seen as the sole culprit as human-induced climate change amplifies the intensity and frequency of such extreme weather events,” said Anjal Prakash, a professor in Indian School of Business and an author of the UN climate report.

The Working Group I report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consisting of nearly 3,000 global scientists, predicted that the mean temperature of most cities in south Bengal as well as several cities in Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar may rise around 4.5°C around 2081-2100, compared to the pre-industrial era.

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