UAE receives its highest rainfall in 75 years, with 1.5 year’s worth of rain falling over Dubai in 24 hours

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), host of last year’s 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has received its highest rainfall in 75 years, according to the government.

“The UAE witnessed the largest amount of rainfall during the past 75 years. The Khatm al-Shakla area in (city of) Al Ain witnessed 254.8 mm of precipitation in less than 24 hours, thus marking an exceptional event in the country’s climatic history,” the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) posted on X (Formerly Twitter).

“Dubai is experiencing major flooding as 1.5 year’s worth of rain just fell in a single day. Nearly 5 inches (127 mm) fell in 24 hours,” climate scientist Colin McCarthy posted on his X account.

Scenes from Dubai, one of the seven emirates of the UAE (along with Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Fujairah, Ras al Khaimah, Ajman and Umm al Quwain) and host to COP28 last year, showed the megacity flooded with water. The Dubai International Airport had to divert flights because of the flooding and planes were video-recorded ploughing through water on the tarmac in order to take off.

Dubai and UAE are situated in the Arabian Peninsula (AP), which has an extremely arid and dry climate. The city and country are not equipped for handling incidents such as those witnessed on April 16, 2024, when the record rainfall caused flooding in the country.

The UAE is not alone. Flooding has also been reported in countries across the region. In Oman, which lies on the southeastern edge of the AP, 18 people have died as a result of heavy rains in recent days, according to the country’s National Committee for Emergency Management, news agency Associated Press reported on April 16.

‘Highly Vulnerable’

The NCM’s Annual Climate Assessment 2022 for the UAE notes that “The peninsula (AP) is sensitive to climate fluctuations and is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.”

“The regional climate over the peninsula is modulated by the various teleconnection patterns of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns,” it added.

Read A COP28 recap with CSE-DTE

The report noted that the UAE’s climate had warmed by 0.4°C from the long-term average (2003-2022).

As for precipitation, a study published in 2020 noted that there will be “a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the southern AP, and a decrease over the northern AP”. UAE is located in the southern part of the AP.

“Under three emission scenarios, the annual mean precipitation averaged over the Arabian Peninsula is likely to increase by 3.76–31.83% by the end of the twenty-first century. The northwestern parts of the Arabian Peninsula show a significant reduction, while southern parts of the Peninsula display a significant increase in annual mean precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century,” the study noted.

In 2022 though, rainfall activity over UAE was below normal, according to the NCM report. That year, the UAE received a total mean of 56.2 mm, which is the fifth lowest recorded in the last 20 years.

It was also the driest year on record, with the country’s annual total rainfall in deficit, compared with the long-term average (2003-2022), according to the NCM.

The northeastern UAE received more than 200 mm of rain, whereas the remaining areas (south-central parts of the UAE) witnessed below 90 mm.

“Persistent La Niña conditions are associated with drier-than-normal conditions over UAE, which experienced below average rainfall in 2022,” the analysis stated.

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