World Migration Report 2024: Climate impacts will force 216 million people to move within their countries by 2050

More human beings are being displaced by force today than at any other time in humankind’s history. Such forced displacement is being further exacerbated by environmental impacts and climate change. More than 216 million people across six continents will be on the move within their countries by 2050 in large part due to climate change, according to the World Migration Report 2024 released by the United Nations on May 8, 2024.

Climate change cannot be considered the sole driver of food insecurity or migration, according to the document since political power, incompetent governance, globalised food production and other social factors also play a role. What climate change does do is increase pressure on existing systems and communities.

According to the report, migration is a coping or adaptation strategy to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. “The outcomes of migration as an adaptation tool depend on the circumstances of the individuals or households engaging in human mobility, as well as on the involvement and agency of migrants,” it said.

No continent unaffected

No region of the planet inhabited by humans is unaffected due to climate change and the consequent migration of people.

The report profiled the Global South — Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania — in addition to the Global North (Europe and North America) to come up with a grim picture of how climate change is forcing people to move from their homes, within their home countries or continents.

On the continent of Africa, the analysis looked at subregions such as North Africa, West and Central Africa as well as East and Southern Africa.

North Africa, which is often clubbed with West Asia as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to similarities in culture and landscape, has experienced significant warming over the last several decades, while at the same time seeing its rainfall decrease during the wet season, particularly in countries such as Libya, Algeria and Morocco.

A 2021 report by the World Bank has projected that without tangible action on climate and development, millions of people across North Africa could be forced to move within their countries as a result of climate change.

The report cited instances including Libya, which has still not recovered from the Arab Spring over a decade ago. 

Local militias have weaponised water scarcity, including using water infrastructure for leverage against the central government and other rivals. Libya also witnessed the ‘Medicane’ Daniel last year which devastated the port city of Derna.

Read Was the freak ‘medicane’ storm that devastated Libya a glimpse of North Africa’s future?

In Algeria and Morocco, there have been significant displacements triggered by droughts and wildfires.

“By end of 2022, wildfires induced 9,500 displacements in parts of northern Morocco, and in the same year, 2,000 displacements — also due to wildfires — were recorded in north-eastern Algeria. Wildfires also destroyed significant swaths of land, especially in Morocco, where they ruined more land in 2022 than in the previous nine years combined,” the report said.

North Africa is separated from the rest of the continent by the Sahel, a band of dry scrublands that stretch from the Atlantic in the west to the Red Sea in the east.

Rainfall in the Sahel has decreased by over 20 per cent since the 1970s, making this part of Africa one of the most prone to droughts.

At the same time, parts of the subregion have experienced significant sudden-onset disasters, which have displaced millions of people.

“Nigeria, for example, had the largest number of internal displacements due to disasters in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 (more than 2.4 million). This was also highest figure recorded in Nigeria in ten years. The displacements were largely the result of floods between June and November 2022,” noted the report.

Read Lake Chad's forgotten crisis

Meanwhile, climate change is playing havoc in the south and east of the continent.

By May 2023, more than 2 million people had been internally displaced due to drought in Ethiopia and Somalia (combined), while over 866,000 refugees and asylum-seekers in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia were living in drought-affected areas at the start of the year.

Southern Africa has seen climate change-linked disasters, including cyclones, become more frequent and intense.

Cyclone Freddy, one the longest-lasting cyclones ever, wrought havoc in Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar in early 2023. It killed more than 500 people, and displaced over 500,000 in Malawi alone.

Read Viva Freddy: How the cyclone broke 16 records in 37 days

In Asia, the Indian subcontinent or southern Asia has seen its fair share of climate-related displacement within countries in recent years.

“The 2022 floods in Pakistan — some of the deadliest in the country’s history — resulted in nearly 1,700 deaths and more than 8 million displacements,” the analysis noted.

Read Blame global warming for Pakistan floods; here’s why

Bangladesh, a low-lying country located at the head of the Bay of Bengal, records thousands of displacements every year due to disasters.

“Record-breaking floods in Bangladesh in 2022 — some of the worst in 100 years — led to dozens of deaths. In 2022 alone, disasters triggered over 1.5 million displacements in Bangladesh,” according to the report.

Read Mocha is the strongest cyclone on earth so far in this year: Expert

The heart of Asia too is not immune. Increasing desertification, glacial melt in the Third Pole and dam failures have led to floods and subsequent displacement.

Read Climate change will cause disputes such as the Helmand to continue for years: Fatemeh Aman

“Droughts have worsened in recent years, resulting in water shortages, including for activities such as irrigation. Water management issues across borders — particularly between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — have increasingly fuelled tensions and led to violent clashes. There have also been reports of violent clashes between farmers in Uzbekistan’s Namangan and Surkhandarya regions over water resources,” the document stated.

The Americas, Caribbean and Oceania

The Americas, Caribbean and Oceania too face daunting challenges because of climate-related internal displacement.

“In a country such as Ecuador, it is predicted that environmental factors are likely to enhance both internal and international migration, while Peru has already advanced legislation on planned relocation — particularly along Peru’s rainforest rivers — as a solution and response to the adverse impacts of climate change,” the report said about South America.

Read East and West: Extreme weather strikes on opposite sides of globe in Brazil, Texas, Vietnam & Indonesia

Floods in 2022 in Brazil displaced over 700,000 people while rain and floods caused most of the 281,000 disaster displacements in Colombia the same year.

In early 2023, a state of emergency was declared in Peru after cyclone Yaku caused widespread flooding in the country’s northern region, resulting in deaths, destruction of property and displacement.

Chile, home to the Atacama desert, has been witnessing extremely destructive wild fires. In January, such fires caused the evacuation of more than 7,500 people.

The Caribbean, made up of the Greater and Lesser Antilles as well as the Windward and Leeward Islands, is part of the Small Island Developing States. The islands of the Caribbean are some of the most at risk from the impacts of climate change.

Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Cuba in September 2022, resulted in 80,000 displacements (largely pre-emptive evacuations).

Hurricane Fiona triggered 94,000 displacements, most of them in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

Both, the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agree that migration due to climate change is projected to increase on small islands, including in the Caribbean.

The Global North too is not unaffected by climate-related displacement. In North America, both Canada and the United States are vulnerable.

In Canada, tens of thousands of people had been displaced and millions of acres burned by June 2023, as wildfires raged for weeks.

Read Eagle Bluff: US wildfire crosses the 49th Parallel into Canada; forces town to be evacuated

Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Cuba before tracking toward the United States, resulted in more than 300,000 displacements, most in Florida.

In the Pacific Ocean, disasters such as tropical cyclones, volcanic eruptions and droughts often wreak havoc and cause displacement across the subregion.

In 2021, two consecutive cyclones — Ana and Bina — hit the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji, triggering more 14,000 displacements.

“Since half their population live within 10km of the coast, Pacific small island States are also vulnerable to slow onset events such as rising sea levels and coastal erosion, with potentially significant human impacts, including displacement,” the report said.

Policy measures

Governments across the planet are taking steps to mitigate the impacts of climate-related internal displacement.

In September 2022, more than 10 States of the East and Horn of Africa subregion signed the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment and Climate Change.

Read Kampala Declaration on climate change, human mobility now has 48 African countries as members

It lists 12 commitments articulated by the signatory States and five requests to the parties to the UNFCCC, under a collaborative framework that concretely addresses climate-induced mobility while driving forward the sustainable development of States.

Also in 2022, in the month of May, Argentina “adopted a new humanitarian visa pathway for people from the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico who were displaced due to natural events.”

The same year, the United States government announced its intention of giving money to five Native American tribes in the states of Alaska and Washington to assist with their relocation away from coastlines and rivers.

Meanwhile, Pacific Island governments have declared climate change a critical security issue for the region.

They are currently considering the form and content of a regional, rights-based framework on climate mobility — the first of its kind anywhere in the world — under the oversight of the Pacific Islands Forum.

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