Environment
We are nearing mid-July, but 14 states, UTs still have huge rain deficit
These states and UTs, mostly in north and east India, reported a deficit between 27 per cent and 74 per cent till July 10
By DTE Staff
Published: Wednesday 11 July 2018
We are now in the second week of July, and rainfall is still far from normal in most of the states.
States / Meteorological subdivisions |
Rainfall deficit (%) till June 30 |
Rainfall deficit (%) till July 10 |
Arunachal Pradesh |
28 |
27 |
Assam |
17 |
29 |
Meghalaya |
26 |
37 |
Nagaland |
33 |
30 |
Manipur |
67 |
67 |
Odisha |
26 |
25 |
Gangetic West Bengal |
22 |
25 |
Jharkhand |
33 |
38 |
Bihar |
19 |
29 |
East Uttar Pradesh |
36 |
53 |
West Uttar Pradesh |
26 |
50 |
Delhi |
9 |
33 |
Gujarat |
51 |
46 |
Saurashtra & Kutch |
75 |
74 |
Chhattisgarh |
16 |
15 |
Lakshadweep |
37 |
37 |
Instead of making up for the deficit in June, rain continues to remain elusive, hence, worsening the situation. In fact, out of these 14 states and UTs, situation has worsened in seven. In some cases, the deficit has increased sharply from 9 per cent to 33 per cent (Delhi) and from 26 per cent to 50 per cent.
Uneven distribution of rain
While Odisha’s cumulative deficit till July 10 is 25 per cent, districts in the western part of the state, especially Kalahandi and Balangir, are still experiencing 54 per cent and 53 per cent deficit respectively.
Similarly, in Jharkhand, central and western districts such as Chatra, Khunti and Koderma have, so far, seen a deficit of 73 per cent, 79 per cent and 69 per cent respectively as opposed to state’s total deficit of 38 per cent. Arunachal Pradesh has also witnessed this uneven distribution of rainfall with at least four districts experiencing a rainfall deficit between 63 per cent and 77 per cent till July 10, against the state’s cumulative deficit of 27 per cent.
What is not encouraging is the latest IMD forecast, according to which, “subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over East and Northeast India during next 23 days”.
Despite announcing its arrival on time, drenching southern India and western states such as Maharashtra, southwest monsoon went quiet for nearly two weeks before advancing towards the north. Fast advancement of monsoon during the fag end of June, reduced the rainfall deficit from 12 per cent to five per cent.
Concern over developing El Niño
Meanwhile, Skymet Weather has indicated a possibility of El Niño shaping up. “The ocean indexes in the Pacific area are currently neutral but they are showing promising signs of potential increase over the next few months,” the private weather forecaster said. Even IMD’s forecast indicates that El Niño conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season.
Related Stories
- Impact of stalled monsoon: 30-45% decline in sowing of kharif crops in June
- Slow and weak: 42% of India records rain deficit despite welcoming monsoon a month ago
- In the shadow of El Niño fear: an already weak monsoon may suffer another jolt
- Monsoon's progress will be stalled till the end of June, but IMD portrays a rosy picture
India Environment Portal Resources :
- Development of monsoonal Asia climate risk analysis maprooms
- Role of ocean initial conditions to diminish dry bias in the seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: A case study using climate forecast system
- Declining pre-monsoon dust loading over South Asia: Signature of a changing regional climate
- Quantification of rainfall during the late Miocene–early Pliocene in North East India
- Question raised in Rajya Sabha on Uncertainties in Weather Patterns, 09/03/2017
- Long‐term climate simulations using the IITM Earth System Model (IITM‐ESMv2) with focus on the South Asian monsoon
Comments are moderated and will be published only after the site moderator’s approval. Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name. Selected comments may also be used in the ‘Letters’ section of the Down To Earth print edition.
More than anything else, the Monsoon determines what happens to our economy, ecology and livelihoods of the poor every year. We need more reliable and dis-aggregated data, district wise on where it will rain and when and how much? And importantly, to make such data easily available through the Internet. Meanwhile, the governments need to mainstream rain water harvesting in their various schemes especially in the forests through measures like contour trenching.