Science & Technology
Despite increasing probability of El Nino, IMD confident of good monsoon
Met department has also predicted a fairly uniform geographical distribution of monsoon
By DTE Staff
Published: Tuesday 06 June 2017
The second stage long range forecast for the 2017 monsoon was released this evening by the India Meteorological Department. Keeping in line with the first stage forecast released in mid-April, the latest forecast predicts a normal monsoon season in 2017. Quantitatively, the IMD has put out a forecast of 98 per cent (± 4 per cent) of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Despite global models showing an increasing probability of an El Nino developing in the later stages of the Indian monsoon, the IMD seems confident of a good showing by the monsoon this year. The statistical model used by the IMD has thrown up a 50 per cent probability of the monsoon being in normal range while probabilities of the monsoon being below normal and deficient are 28 and 7 per cent respectively.
The experimental dynamic and statistical coupled model being run under the Monsoon Mission suggests that the monsoon shall be even better. According to the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) forecast, the country is set receive 100 ± 5 per cent of the LPA between June and September.
The met department has also predicted a fairly uniform geographical distribution of monsoon with season rainfall likely to be 96 per cent, 100 per cent, 99 per cent and 96 per cent over north-west India, Central India, Southern Peninsula and North-East India respectively, all with a model error of ± 8 per cent.
Rainfall during July and August is also likely to be 96 and 99 per cent of the LPA although with a large margin of error at ±9 per cent.
Category |
Rainfall Range (% of LPA) |
Forecast Probability (%) |
Climatological Probability (%) |
Deficient |
<90 |
7 |
16 |
Below Normal |
90-96 |
28 |
17 |
Normal |
96-104 |
50 |
33 |
Above Normal |
104-110 |
13 |
16 |
Excess |
>110 |
2 |
17 |
Related Stories
- Normal monsoon prediction comes as relief amidst drought in south
- This year too, El Nino may lead to deficit monsoon, drier conditions in India
- Climate change may be driving changes in India's northeast monsoon
India Environment Portal Resources :
- First stage forecast of southwest monsoon season-2017 rainfall
- Weakening of Indian summer--monsoon rainfall due to changes in land use land cover
- Impact of the upper tropospheric cooling trend over Central Asia on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks
- On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal
- Variations in the cloud-base height over the central Himalayas during GVAX: association with the monsoon rainfall
- Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient
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